Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points or more, which is relevant with this line favoring the Eagles by 7. As a result of their close margins of victory and bigger margins of defeat, the Giants have just a -7 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, leading to them ranking just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6 points above average and 10 points above the Giants. 

The Eagles also frequently win by margins that would at least push this 7-point spread, with 8 wins by 7 points or more, a trend that actually goes back to last season, when they had 7 such victories, even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The Giants will also be without a pair of key defenders this week, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and stud interior defender Leonard Williams, while the Eagles are relatively close to full strength for how late in the season it is. My roster rankings give the healthier Eagles a 14-point edge, so I like their chances of beating the Giants by a pretty convincing margin, even in New York. The Eagles are worth a big play at -7 and a smaller play if you have to take them at -7.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High