Detroit Lions (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6)
A week ago on the early line, the Jets were favored by a field goal at home against the Lions, but this line has since shifted to favoring the Lions by 1.5 points. Normally I like to go against significant week-to-week line movements like that, but in this case it might be justified, as the Lions played well in a big victory over the Vikings, while the Jets lost their best quarterback Mike White to injury and will turn back to Zach Wilson this week.
The Jets could also be without stud interior defender Quinnen Williams, arguably the best player on their defense, after he didn’t practice all week. I’m still taking the Jets for pick ‘em purposes because they still have the edge on the season in point differential (+21 vs. +2) and schedule adjusted efficiency (12th vs. 18th), even with a carousel of different quarterbacks under center, and they now are home underdogs in this game. This is only a low confidence pick though and, if Williams is out, I would drop all confidence.
Update: Williams out, but, for some reason, the Jets are now favored by 1.5 points. I am switching my pick to Detroit, but dropping this to a no confidence pick.
New York Jets 24 Detroit Lions 23
Pick against the spread: Detroit +1.5