Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) at New York Jets (7-7)
The Jaguars pulled off a huge comeback upset win over the Cowboys in overtime last week, but that loss might have come with a price, as now the Jaguars have to play on a short week after that overtime game, which has proven to be a close to impossible spot for teams to play well in, with teams going just 2-22 ATS against the spread on short rest after an overtime game. Making matters worse, the Jaguars have to go on the road outside of the division, which is also a tough spot for teams on short rest, unless they’re facing a significantly worse team, which is not the case this week against the Jets. Historically, non-divisional road underdogs cover at a 37.5% rate on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest.
We’re not getting good line value with the Jets as 1.5-point favorites, as that’s right around where I have this line calculated, as the Jets are at home and have been the slightly better team this season, but the Jaguars have been playing significantly better in recent weeks, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence emerging in a big way midway through his second season in the league. However, that calculated line doesn’t take into account the significant disadvantage the Jaguars are at in this game and, even without getting any line value with them, the Jets are still worth a bet purely based on how bad of a spot the Jaguars are in. This isn’t worth a big bet, but I like the Jets this week.
New York Jets 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Pick against the spread: NY Jets -1.5