Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

The Ravens are one of the few teams this week that actually has something to play for, as they can lock up the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC with a win this week over the Browns. The Ravens are heavily favored to do that, opening as 17.5-point favorites this week, but that arguably isn’t high enough, as the Ravens rank first statistically and in my roster rankings. My roster rankings have the Ravens 11 points above average, while their first down rate differential of +1.63 and yards per play differential of +6.36% are both significantly better than the second ranked teams in those metrics, which are at +1.08 and +4.60% respectively. 

The Browns have a solid defense, but their offense is horrendous. Not only do they rank 32nd in first down rate and 31st in yards per play, but their current quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the worst of the three quarterbacks they’ve played this season and one of the worst quarterbacks in recent memory, with one touchdown to ten interceptions in five career starts. I made a huge mistake last week underestimating how bad he was, but he should be picked against almost every time. 

My calculated line for this game has the Ravens favored by 20, which is decent line value, and the Ravens are also in a good spot. The Browns beat them earlier this season, but that was in Cleveland when the Browns’ best quarterback Jameis Winston was under center and that win actually puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams tend to struggle as big underdogs against a team they’ve already beaten as big underdogs that season. Overall, underdogs or 3.5 or more cover the spread at just a 41.7% rate against a team they already beat as underdogs or 3.5 points or more that season. 

There’s enough here for the Ravens to be worth a bet, even with the line being this high. In fact, I’m locking this bet in now because this line could climb if the Ravens chose to rule out injured veterans like Myles Garrett, Jerome Ford, Jordan Hicks, and/or Denzel Ward, who didn’t practice on Tuesday, for this meaningless week 18 game, while the Ravens weren’t missing any key players at Tuesday’s practice and have an obvious reason to give their best effort.

Update: Good news/bad news for this Ravens bet. The good news is the Browns will be without Ford, Hicks, and Ward this week, which are big absences. The bad news is the Browns will be starting fourth string quarterback Bailey Zappe, who is probably better than Thompson-Robinson by fault. The line has moved up to 20 as well, so I’m glad I locked this in at 17.5. Ultimately, nothing changes with this bet, but these are noteworthy updates.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -17.5

Confidence: Medium