Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)
I have succesfully bet against the Packers in each of their first two games because their spreads have not fully caught up with just how much talent they have lost since they started 9-3-1 last season. The Micah Parsons injury and Josh Jacobs’ suspension are the obvious losses, but this off-season the Packers lost left tackle Rasheed Walker, center Elgton Jenkins, Parsons’ counterpart at edge defender Rashan Gary, key reserve edge defender Kingsley Enagbare, useful wide receivers Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs, and starting linebacker Quay Walker this off-season and didn’t adaquately replace any of them, in part due to not having their own first round pick as a result of the Micah Parsons trade. On top of that, tight end Tucker Kraft does not seem 100% as he works his way back from a torn ACL.
Things went from bad to worse last week when they lost right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele, by far their best remaining offensive lineman, and talented slot receiver Jayden Reed early in the game. Both seem likely to be out for an extended period of time. The Packers still managed to win last week, but they needed overtime to beat the lowly Jets, which was their first win since Parsons got hurt last season, snapping an overall six game losing streak. The Packers did get left guard Aaron Banks back last week after he missed week one, while interior defender Javon Hargrave, their most notable off-season addition, is likely to return this week after missing week two, but this roster is still in rough shape overall, ranking 22nd in my roster rankings, after being one of the better teams in the league to start last season.
Despite that, the Packers are still favored by 6.5 points against the Falcons this week and the majority of the money is on Green Bay. That is because the Falcons have looked horrendous offensively through two games this season. In terms of yards per play, the Falcons rank 31st at 4.23 and in terms of first downs rate the Falcons rank 28th at 25.98%. However, they do get starting quarterback Michael Penix back from a torn ACL this week.
Penix has been an underwhelming starter thus far in his career and probably won’t be 100% in his first game back, but he should still be a massive upgrade over third string quarterback Cooper Rush for an offense that has much more talent than their numbers through two weeks would suggest, including a solid offensive line, an excellent feature back in Bijan Robinson, a true #1 wide receiver in Drake London, and a tight end who has been productive in the past in Kyle Pitts.
Meanwhile, the Falcons’ defense has played well through two weeks, ranking 9th in yards per play allowed at 4.87 and 5th in first down rate allowed at 25.98%, so if they can get even decent play from Penix, this team should be much more competitive than they have been. I have them 17th in my roster rankings with Penix in the lineup, so we are getting great line value with them as 6.5-point underdogs against a mediocre Packers team.
On top of that, the Packers are in a tough spot playing on a short week after an overtime game, as teams are just 5-27 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game the previous Sunday, underperforming the spread by an average of 7.9 points per game. The Packers do have an advantage being at home because traveling on a short week tends to be a huge disadvantage unless you are facing a familiar divisional opponent and/or a significantly inferior team. Non-divisional road underdogs cover at just a 38.6% rate on Thursday Night Football when both teams are on short rest. However, the trend in Atlanta’s favor is more powerful than the one in Green Bay’s favor and we are getting great line value with the Falcons anyway. The Falcons are worth a big bet this week.
Atlanta Falcons 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +235
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5
Confidence: High
Leave a Reply