New York Jets (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1)
I have bet against the Lions in each of the first two weeks of the season and won both bets, as they won by 1 in overtime as 7-point favorites against the Saints and lost by 10 as 4.5 point underdogs in Buffalo. However, the Lions were in tough spots in both games. In week 1, they were favorites before a Thursday Night game, a spot in which teams cover at a 40.4% rate all-time. Then last week, they were playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 5-27 ATS all-time, as it is very tough to play with minimal rest after a longer than normal game.
This week they should be much better rested with a week and a half off, they should be healthier with right tackle Blake Miller set to return after missing last week, and most importantly now they are in a good spot, as the Lions have done very well off of a loss in the Dan Campbell era, going 24-12 ATS and outperforming the spread by 3 points per game. This line only favors them by 6.5 points at home against a Jets team that is one of the worst in the league, so we are getting good line value with a Lions team that is better than they have looked in bad spots this season.
In addition to the Lions being better than they have looked so far this season, the Jets might be a little overrated because they beat the Titans easily and then nearly beat the Packers, but the Titans are one of the few teams worse than the Jets and the Packers are extremely short handed and were in a bad spot before Thursday Night Football and still managed to beat the Jets in New York. The Lions should be able to beat the Jets by 7 points or more, something they did frequently last season, winning 8 games by 7 points or more, tied for third most in the league, even though they were only 9-8 overall.
Detroit Lions 31 New York Jets 17
Pick against the spread: Detroit -6.5
Confidence: High
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