Houston Texans (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Going into the season, I thought the Texans were overrated for two reasons. For one, they had a turnover margin of +17 last season, which is a statistic that tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency last season, which tends to be much more consistent on a year-to-year basis, the Texans ranked just 14th, good but not as good as their 12-5 record last season suggested. On top of that, they were a much better team on defense (4th in schedule adjusted efficiency) than on offense (28th in schedule adjusted efficiency) and offensive performance tends to be much more consistent on a year-to-year basis than defensive performance.
Sure enough, through two games this season, the Texans are -2 in turnover margin, remain well below average on offense, and have not quite been as good on defense as last season, leading to a 0-2 record. Making matters worse, the Texans’ offense has been without by far their best offensive player Nico Collins, as well as their best offensive lineman Ed Ingram for the past two weeks, which hurt them significantly last week and will continue to do so this week.
Despite that, the Texans are still favored by 2 points on the road in Indianapolis. That isn’t a big line, but the Colts are arguably the better of these two teams and my calculated line has them favored by 3, giving us good line value with the Colts. The Colts are also 0-2, but they were a much better team in schedule adjusted efficiency last season, ranking 6th, despite only having starting quarterback Daniel Jones for 13 games, top interior defender DeForest Buckner for 10 games, and starting cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward for 7 games and 4 games respectively.
The Colts looked bad week 1 against the Ravens in what was many of their key players’ first game back, but they looked much healthier in week 2, nearly beating the Chiefs in Kansas City, and I think that is more representative of the type of team this is. The Colts aren’t fully healthy, missing top wide receiver Alec Pierce, but they are healthier than they were for most of last season and they are healthier than their opponents this week, who they have a slight edge over in my roster rankings. Given the disparity between where this line is and where I think it should be, the Colts are worth a bet this week.
Indianapolis Colts 23 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick +110
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +2
Confidence: Medium
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