Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
The Bengals are 2-0, but they haven’t been quite as good as their record suggests, as they are about even in both first down rate differential (+0.50%) and yards per play differential (+0.02), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. In their week 1 win over the Buccaneers, the Bengals won the turnover margin by 3 and in their week 2 win over the Texans, the Bengals stopped the Texans four times on 4th down. Both of those had significant impacts on the outcome of that game and turnover margin and 4th down conversion rates are much more inconsistent week-to-week than first down rate and yards per play rate.
Last week’s game against the Texans is the more concerning performance because they lost the first down rate battle by 6.49% and the yards per play battle by 0.27 in their first game since Joe Burrow hurt his back, an injury that seems to be significantly limiting him. After averaging 5.57 yards per play and a 40.00% first down rate against the Buccaneers week 1, the Bengals had 4.53 yards per play and a 20.34% first down rate against the Texans week 2.
Obviously part of the dropoff was that the Texans have a much tougher defense than the Buccaneers, but Burrow did not seem 100% either. It is very possible that could continue into this week with the Bengals facing another tough defense. The Steelers’ offense is obviously a concern, but I don’t think there is a big enough gap between these two teams to justify the Bengals being favored by 3.5 points on the road, so I think the Steelers are worth a small bet this week.
Cincinnati Bengals 21 Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5
Confidence: Medium
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