Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1)
The Broncos went 14-3 last season, but were not nearly as good as their record suggested. They had the second easiest schedule in the league last season and still needed to go 11-2 in one-score games to finish with the record they did. A team’s record in one-score games tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis (case in point, the Broncos went 1-6 in one-score games in 2024) and it’s not hard to see how against a tougher schedule this season that a few of those close wins could turn into close losses. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more consistent on a year-to-year basis than a team’s record in one-score games, the Broncos ranked 9th last season, still pretty good, but not as good as their record.
The Broncos did add talented wide receiver Jaylen Waddle via trade this off-season, but he came at the cost of their first round pick, which would have been nice to have, given that they lost a pair of starters on defense in John Franklin-Myers and Dre Greenlaw and that they have one of the oldest rosters in the league, ranking 6th in snap-adjusted age last season and coming into this season with the 5th oldest roster in terms of average age, including eight starters in their age 30 season or older.
The Broncos also didn’t have many injuries last season, despite having an old roster, with the 5th lowest total value lost to injury and the 8th fewest adjusted games lost to injury, but that could easily change in 2026, which would further hurt them. The Broncos don’t have any major injuries yet, but they are without talented edge defender Jonathan Cooper due to suspension, which is a big loss. Even with him, the Broncos would have a much more middling roster than their record last season would suggest and, without him, the Broncos rank just 15th in my roster rankings. Despite that, the Broncos are just 1.5-point home underdogs against the Rams, who are a much better team.
The Rams started the season as the overall favorite, after adding a quartet of talented defenders, cornerback Trent McDuffie, cornerback Jaylen Watson, edge defender Myles Garrett, and interior defender Aaron Donald, to a team that led the league in schedule adjusted efficiency and that was close to beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Seahawks all three times they played them last season. They lost badly week 1 to the 49ers, but the 49ers look like the best team in the league through two weeks and that was a weird situation because the game took place in Australia, so I don’t really hold that loss against the Rams that much, especially since they looked a lot better the following week against the Giants.
The Rams are shorthanded, without top wide receiver Puka Nacua, top edge defender Myles Garrett, and starting safety Kam Kitchens, but at full strength, they arguably have the best roster in the league and, even without those three, the Rams still rank 4th in my roster rankings. The Rams are also in a good spot because teams who win big on Monday Night Football like the Rams did last week tend to carry that into the following week, covering the spread at a 58.2% rate after a win by 21 points or more. Between that trend and the line value we are getting with the Rams, they are worth a bet this week.
Los Angeles Rams 21 Denver Broncos 17
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -1.5
Confidence: Medium
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