Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
The Steelers pulled the upset at home against Cincinnati last week to improve to 2-1, but they have not been as good as their record, entering this game ranked 22nd in first down rate differential (-2.20%), 27th in yards per play differential (-0.73), and 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-5.32). Their win last week also puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams who win by 3 points or less as underdogs cover at just a 37.2% rate the following week as road favorites. After such an emotional upset win last week, it seems likely the Steelers will have a let down this week on the road against the Browns.
None of this is to say I like the Browns though. The Browns are also 2-1, but they have been even less impressive than the Steelers, ranking 30th in first down rate differential (-5.58%), 25th in yards per play differential (-0.60), and 30th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-8.33). Only getting 2.5 points at home, I would need to be confident the Browns could win for them to be worth betting and I am not. The Browns should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, but this is not close to being bettable, even if we got a +3.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 16
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2.5
Confidence: None
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