Denver Broncos (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
The 49ers were my Pick of the Week last week as 8.5-point favorites against the Cardinals. The 49ers had a bunch of in game injuries, missed two extra points, allowed two 4th down conversions, and muffed a punt and still would have covered if not for a backdoor field goal. The 49ers won the first down rate battle by 12.09% and the yards per play battle by 4.23 and should have won the game by a lot more than the 6 they did win by.
I am going to try again with the 49ers as my Pick of the week as I feel they are still undervalued, perhaps even more so now after how last week played out. On the season, the 49ers rank 1st in yards per play and first down rate and have also played well defensively, ranking 7th in yards per play allowed and 4th in first down rate allowed. They lead the league in yards per play differential (+2.51) and first down rate differential (+13.82%), as well as schedule adjusted efficiency (+20.80). No other team is better than +14.08 in schedule adjusted efficiency.
The Broncos simply are not on the same level. They went 14-3 last season, but went 11-2 in one-score games against the second easiest schedule in the league. This season, they are 2-1, but both of their wins could have gone the other way, while their loss was a blowout. They rank 20th in first down rate differential, 26th in yards per play differential, and 18th in schedule adjusted efficiency. I expect this game to play out a lot more like their blowout week 1 road loss than their close home victories in weeks 2 and 3.
It seems like the most important players who suffered injuries for the 49ers last week (Mike Evans, Trent Williams, and Dre Greenlaw) all escaped with minor injuries and, even if one or two of those players miss this game, we are still getting great line value with the 49ers as just 2.5-point home favorites. I suspect this line will go up to 3 or higher later this week as people realize the 49ers should be healthier this week than they were last week and I want to lock this line in before that happens because there is a big difference between 2.5 and 3, with about 1 in 6 games being decided by exactly 3 points.
San Francisco 49ers 28 Denver Broncos 20
Pick against the spread: San Francisco -2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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