Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-2)
The Falcons won 35-14 in Green Bay on Thursday Night Football last week in Michael Penix’s first start of the season and I don’t think that was a fluke. The Falcons have a solid roster, including a solid offensive line, a good defense, and high level running back and wide receiver combo in Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Even with third string quarterback Cooper Rush playing the first two games of the season, the Falcons rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential (+0.39), 8th in first down rate differential (+3.18%), and 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+2.73), led by a defense that ranks 10th in yards per play allowed, 3rd in first down rate allowed, and 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency.
With Penix back, the Falcons rank 9th in my roster rankings and, if Penix can continue being at least a capable quarterback, the Falcons should continue being impressive. Despite last week’s performance, I think the Falcons are still underrated, as underdogs of 2.5 points in New Orleans against the Saints, who rank 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency and 24th in my roster rankings, with starting running back Travis Etienne, top linebacker Kaden Elliss, and starting left tackle Kelvin Banks out, among others. My calculated line has the Falcons favored by 3, so we’re getting good enough line value with the Falcons for them to be worth betting.
Atlanta Falcons 23 New Orleans Saints 20 Upset Pick +125
Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2.5
Confidence: Medium
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