Miami Dolphins (0-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
The Dolphins looked like one of the worst teams in recent memory coming into this season, taking a long-term approach to roster building, with more than half of their cap space being used on players on who are no longer on the roster. So far, they have been as advertised, ranking 28th in yards per play differential (-1.06), 32nd in first down rate differential (-11.33%), and 32nd in schedule adjusted efficiency at -13.05, with no other team worse than -9.80. All three of their games have been losses by 14 points or more. This week seems likely to be more of the same, especially considering the Dolphins just lost their best player, running back De’Von Achane, for the season with a torn ACL.
The Vikings’ offense ranks dead last in yards per play, first down rate, and schedule adjusted efficiency, but their defense ranks 5th in yards per play allowed, 1st in first down rate allowed, and 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency and their offense should be better going forward as quarterback Kyler Murray gets healthy, after being limited to 70 total snaps in the first three games of the season. Justin Jefferson is out this week, but with Murray back, the Vikings rank still 14th in my roster rankings without Jefferson, about 12 points better than the last ranked Dolphins. This line is pretty high at 10, but I don’t think it is high enough, as this is likely to be yet another blowout loss for the Dolphins.
Minnesota Vikings 20 Miami Dolphins 6
Pick against the spread: Minnesota -10
Confidence: High
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