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Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

The Cardinals are favored by 3 over the Colts, which seems to be confusing the public as they are all over the underdog here, which is very rare. They do have somewhat of a point. The Colts are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. These two teams don’t seem even when you look at that, but this line suggests they are.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, while the Colts are in a good spot. The Colts are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, as they host the Titans next week. That’s a situation teams are 55-40 ATS in since 2002. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as they go to Philadelphia next week. Teams are 62-86 ATS in that situation since 2002. Combining those, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, you can definitely argue how relevant that is to this situation because it’s not that likely the Cardinals overlook the Colts because of a game with the Eagles next week. The Colts won’t be distracted, but the Cardinals might not either, especially in the Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano bowl. Speaking of that, Bruce Arians was Andrew Luck’s offensive coordinator last year, so that could give the Cardinals a leg up on him.

The Colts’ offense also hasn’t been nearly as good since they lost Reggie Wayne, while the defense is proving their strong play in the early part of the season was a fluke. They haven’t done anything of note since losing Reggie Wayne in that huge win over Denver. Since then, they barely beat Houston and Tennessee and got blown out by the Rams at home, with Andrew Luck completing 70 of 123 (56.9%) for 856 yards (6.96 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the process. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Cardinals because I want to fade the public dog, especially with reverse line movement increasing this line (the definition of a trap line). However, I’m not confident at all.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Arizona -3

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Rams, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6)

Before the bye, the Rams beat the Colts in blowout fashion. However, there were a lot of fluky things going on. They scored twice on return touchdowns, twice on long touchdowns, and only had one methodical touchdown drive. This forced the Colts to abandon their game plan, which made the deficit even worse. Take away the fluke plays and that’s a completely different game. This is still a team moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. With the exception of fluky wins against Indianapolis and Houston (same sort of thing), their wins have come by a field goal over Arizona and a pair of touchdowns over a Jacksonville team that has lost 9 games by double digits. On the other hand, they have 3 losses of 15 or more and 2 losses of 20 or more.

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. After their last such game, a 25 point win over Houston, they got destroyed by Carolina in a 30-15 loss. In fact, teams who win a game by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more are 5-18 ATS since 1989. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams don’t deserve to be favored over the Bears, even if it’s only by a point. At the end of the day, they have a decent defense and a backup quarterback.

The Rams are also in a terrible spot as teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit dogs since 2010 and the Rams have a much bigger game in San Francisco next week that could easily be their Super Bowl since they aren’t really in the playoff mix. The Bears, meanwhile, are very much in the playoff mix and should be focused here for the Rams. I do think they’re a little overrated as well, mostly because their defense is atrocious (they made Baltimore’s offense look competent last week) and missing key players. Offensively, I don’t know how much I trust Josh McCown to keep this up.

Josh McCown is completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.47 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions on this season, a QB rating of 100.0. This is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 73.6, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. I have no doubt that Marc Trestman is a fantastic offensive coach who is making him look better than he is, but I don’t have a ton of faith he can keep this up continually. If he can’t, that would expose their defense. However, I am somewhat confident they should be able to beat the Rams in a game that pretty much has an even line.

Chicago Bears 23 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6)

You could argue we’re getting line value with the Giants here. The Giants are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. They rank 27th and 26th respectively and are pretty equal, which is what this 2.5 point line suggests. However, the Cowboys are very banged up defensively, losing Sean Lee in the middle of their blowout loss in New Orleans. He won’t be back for this one, joining Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, who have essentially missed the season. They could really continue to struggle defensively.

The Giants, meanwhile, have won 4 straight. They haven’t faced a tough schedule over the past 4 games, but their turnover problems seem to be gone, as could be expected. That type of thing is very inconsistent and, after a -16 turnover margin in their first 6 games, they are +5 in turnover margin over the past 4 games. The Cowboys have a strong turnover margin at +11. It’s one of the things they do well. However, that’s not sustainable going forward. Their 66.7% fumble recovery rate isn’t either. If we assume net zero turnovers in this game, which is always smart to do, that could easily favor the Giants.

However, the Giants are in an awful spot here as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs in Washington next week. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002. That’s impossible to ignore and essentially an auto-fade. On top of that, the Cowboys are divisional road dogs before being non-divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 43-29 ATS in since 2008. Combining that, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites, including 13-30 ATS in divisional games.

Also, the NFC East is 43-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 17-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 26-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. I’m worried about the Cowboys’ defense, which is why this isn’t a bigger play, but this is pretty much an auto-bet situation and the Giants’ defense isn’t great either. Of the last 4 quarterbacks they’ve faced, 3 of them are not currently starters (Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Freeman), and the other is Scott Tolzien. The Cowboys could easily win a shootout here. It’s a strong play.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5)

The Panthers have established themselves as a top level team with wins over the Patriots and 49ers in the past 2 weeks, winning both by a touchdown or less, despite going 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since the start of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era in 2011. That type of thing is inconsistent in the long run, so that’s no surprise. Their success this season shouldn’t be seen as a surprise either.

In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. Also, in their final 12 games of the season, after moving Luke Kuechly to the middle, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. They also had a strong draft, adding both Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short. This is a legitimate top level football team.

On the season, the Panthers are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a differential that is 2nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are not nearly as good as their record. They are missing three starters from their offensive line, Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito obviously, as well as Mike Pouncey, their talented center who will miss his 2nd straight game with an illness. They beat the Chargers last week, but that was because the Chargers were in a sandwich game situation on the East Coast at 1 PM as a West Coast team and also missing their talented left tackle King Dunlap.

The Dolphins’ offensive line wasn’t very good before they lost starters and they’re even worse now. They move the chains at a mere 71% rate, largely because of their offensive line, while their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That differential is actually 30th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be about 8 instead of 4, so we’re once again getting a ton of line value with the Panthers.

The Panthers also have always done a great job of blowing out bad teams in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. They are 5-0 as 6+ point favorites in since 2011, winning those 5 games by an average of 20.0 points per game. The Dolphins aren’t underdogs of 6 or more, but you could argue they deserve to be. The Panthers should be able to blow them out here. The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Panthers could be flat off of two huge wins, but they’re good enough to blow out the Dolphins even if they are a little flat. The Panthers are also my Survivor Pick for this week.

Carolina Panthers 27 Miami Dolphins 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Commanders, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Washington Redskins (3-7)

The 49ers have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. It might not seem that way because they’ve lost back-to-back games on separate occasions twice this season. However, they are 6-3 ATS off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era, including 8-3 ATS if you include week 1 losses off of a post-season loss. Even that’s misleading because those 3 ATS losses include a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. Last week, they were the responsible for the Saints not covering at home under Sean Payton for first time since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 streak covers with a push.

They’ve lost off of a loss just twice in the Jim Harbaugh era (as opposed to 8 wins), both times this season, and one of those was the closest game the Saints had played at home under Sean Payton in 14 games. The other one was a huge blowout at home at the hands of the Colts, but, when you look at the whole sample size, that’s clearly the fluke. Meanwhile, those 8 wins came by an average of 18 points per game. Finally, in their only instance in the Jim Harbaugh era off of back-to-back losses, they won 35-11 in St. Louis as 3 point favorites. They could easily blowout the Redskins here.

The 49ers usually take care of business and dominate weaker opponents, which is exactly what the Redskins are. In the Jim Harbaugh era, they are 20-11 ATS as 3+ point favorites, including 7-4 ATS on the road. Colin Kaepernick is struggling on the season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 71 of 114 for 1055 yards, 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries in 5 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.4 points per game.

Good defenses seem to be able to stifle Kaepernick, but Washington has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so he should be able to have a great game. The 49ers defense is as good as it’s ever been, so that could very easily lead to a blowout win here, against the Redskins team that is essentially eliminated and going through what appears to be an internal struggle. They might just through in the towel on this season. The 49ers are built to blowout bad teams if they can establish themselves.

The 49ers are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the 49ers will be alert the whole time. The 49ers have no distractions, with a home game against the Rams next up, coming off a loss, and should be able to take care of business by blowing out an inferior opponent.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Texans, however, sit at 2-8 and would need to go 5-1 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 10 points here. However, they might actually deserve to be. They’re much better than their record on paper. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, which ranks 10th in the NFL.

They aren’t the 10th best team in the NFL. You can’t blindly follow that, but it’s worth noting. They do rank 30th in the NFL in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, but I think they’re definitely better than that. They’re probably somewhere in between, but they’re better than their record. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have lost every game by double figures or more and rank dead last in DVOA by a large distance, so I’m not that confident in them. They should be the right side though. The Texans could also be caught looking forward to New England next week, as divisional home favorites are 21-36 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs since 1989.

Houston Texans 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +10

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5)

One of the most powerful trends in football says that divisional home favorites rarely cover before being divisional road dogs. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002, which is ridiculously low and impossible to ignore. The Packers are in that spot this week, as they go to Detroit next week. Making matters even worse, that game is just a few days after this one on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. The Packers are in no position to be favored by more than 3 against pretty much anyone right now, with Scott Tolzien under center. They are arguably one of the worst teams in the NFL without Aaron Rodgers. It’s a strong play on the Vikings.

Green Bay Packers 24 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against spread: Minnesota +5

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)

I’ve maintained all along that the Chiefs are not as good as their record. Going into last week’s game, they had the NFL’s easiest schedule according to DVOA, which doesn’t even take into account all of the backup quarterbacks they faced. However, despite that, they were 23rd in the NFL in points per drive. They proved that they weren’t as good as their record by failing to cover an 8 point spread in Denver last week in a 27-17 loss.

They have an elite defense for sure, but their offense might actually be one of the worst in the NFL. They’re way too reliant on winning the turnover battle (+15), return touchdowns (+7), and recovering fumbles (66.7%), three things that are tough to rely on consistently. They aren’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re not as good as their record. Football Outsiders has them 9th in DVOA, which I think is very reasonable.

The public still seems to be overrating them as they are all over them as 5.5 point favorites here. I think this might actually be a little high. The Chargers are better than their record. They are 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They move the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, which ranks 12th. In terms of DVOA, they are 16th. With the Chiefs moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 66% for their opponents, I have this line calculated at about 5 and even that might be too high.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. This is a sandwich game for them in between both Denver games. Teams are 74-96 ATS as favorites after a loss as underdogs before being underdogs once again since 2008. Meanwhile, since 1989, teams are 13-29 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional home dogs. The Chargers, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. They lost in Miami in this same sandwich game spot last week, which is probably part of why they are being undervalued. Finally, favorites are 28-42 ATS as favorites off of their first loss week 6 or later since 1989. It’s a strong play on the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +190

Pick Against Spread: San Diego +5.5

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Lions, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

The Buccaneers may just be 2-8, but they are better than their record. Before the season, I said they had 7 of the top-200 players in the NFL (Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Dashon Goldson, Darrelle Revis, Gerald McCoy, Doug Martin, and Lavonte David). Doug Martin is out for the season, Carl Nicks is out indefinitely, and Dashon Goldson will miss this game with a suspension, but that still leaves 4 top level players, who have all lived up to their billing, five if you include breakout right tackle DeMar Dotson. Among those players, Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis are both playing at an All-Pro level and you could maybe say the same thing for Lavonte David.

Now that Mike Glennon has settled in and is playing decent football, this team is no pushover. They’ve won their last 2 games, including a home game against the Falcons last week that was a huge blowout for most of the game before garbage time. The Falcons aren’t very good obviously, but blowing out anyone is impressive. The Buccaneers are 1-4 in games decent by a touchdown or less and their point differential is only at -50, which is comparable to several 4-6 and 5-5 teams. This is despite facing a pretty tough schedule.

In terms of DVOA, they are 17th, while their opponent here, the Lions, are just 15th. The Buccaneers rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, while the Lions rank 12th, moving them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponent. We’re getting way too many points with the Buccaneers at +9.5.

The Lions could also be in a look ahead spot with a Thanksgiving game against the Packers coming up next week. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.

The Lions could especially be looking ahead because it’s such an important divisional game, it’s a Thanksgiving game (where they haven’t had success recently), and it’s against a Green Bay team that they have been pretty much unable to beat for a good decade. They have some demons to exercise next week and a good chance of doing so with Aaron Rodgers’ status unclear. That could really trip them up this week. The only reason this isn’t a significant play is because the Buccaneers have to go to Carolina next week and teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. They too could be distracted. They should still be the right side though.

Detroit Lions 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +9.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jets, Ravens, Uncategorized

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6)

So far, the Jets have alternated wins and losses over the first 10 games, the first team in NFL history to do so. Can they extend that into 11 games and win here in Baltimore? Well, I think the fact that they’ve done so well off of losses this season is something worth noting. The public tends to overreact to their losses because they’re the Jets and they’re the media’s punching bad. The Jets do a very good job feeding off of that and winning as an undervalued and overlooked opponent. The Jets are also in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. They could overlook the Jets with a game against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before a Thursday Night Game since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and last week the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers with a push. The Ravens are also coming off a crushing overtime loss as underdogs in Chicago last week. Home favorites are 18-30 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road underdogs in overtime.

All that being said, I can’t put anything on the Jets. The Ravens are pretty unbeatable at home, going 26-4 straight up since 2010. Those 4 losses include two against the rival Steelers, who always play the Ravens tough, the Packers, and the Broncos. I really don’t think the Jets are that caliber. Even this year, when they’ve struggled by their standards, they are 4-1 at home, losing only by 2 against the Packers and covering in all 5 instances. The Jets don’t have to win here to cover, which is why I think they’re the right side, but we’re not getting enough points here for me to be that confident in the Jets. If this line increases, I might increase the confidence. The Ravens are just 6-10 ATS since 2010 as home favorites of 5.5 or more. That’s a long way away though.

Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4

Confidence: None

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