Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5)
One of the most powerful trends in football says that divisional home favorites rarely cover before being divisional road dogs. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002, which is ridiculously low and impossible to ignore. The Packers are in that spot this week, as they go to Detroit next week. Making matters even worse, that game is just a few days after this one on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. The Packers are in no position to be favored by more than 3 against pretty much anyone right now, with Scott Tolzien under center. They are arguably one of the worst teams in the NFL without Aaron Rodgers. It’s a strong play on the Vikings.
Green Bay Packers 24 Minnesota Vikings 23
Pick against spread: Minnesota +5