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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8)

This line was at 6.5 last week. Now it’s at 9 and the public is still all over the Saints. The Saints are awesome and the Falcons suck. How can the Saints not win by double digits right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as the public is all over the Saints. That alone leads me to think about going with Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t appeared to put forth much effort over the past few weeks, losing 4 straight by a combined 74 points. It’s very possible that they’ve just quit as they are unaccustomed to this kind of losing. However, I think they’re still capable of putting forth a decent performance at home and keep this competitive in a game they actually care about, with the rival Saints coming to town.

They have always done well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, at least until this year. Off of a loss, they are 20-10 ATS since 2008, though just 2-5 ATS this season. I think they can summon some of that for this one, now that they’ve officially hit rock bottom and can’t go any deeper. They’ve also been a very good home team in the Mike Smith era, going 30-12 straight up. They are just 2-3 there this year, but they’ve still been a much better home team than road team and of their recent rough stretch, only one game was at home.

The Saints, meanwhile, have not been the same team on the road over the past few years. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints are an incredibly dominant home team, a huge part of the reason why they are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, but they’re not the same on the road.

I think this line might be a little inflated. The Saints could also be caught looking forward to Seattle next week and Carolina the week after that, after last week’s big win over the 49ers. I’m not confident at all though because it’s very possible the Falcons have just mailed in the season and the Saints are legitimately a top-3 team in the NFL, while the Falcons might be a bottom-3 team, but the Falcons should be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta +9

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3)

Brady/Manning 14. That has to be some kind of record for non-divisional quarterbacks (I actually don’t know this. If someone does, let me know). This is the greatest quarterback battle in NFL history. What guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck etc. have done in recent years is cute, but Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been that good consistently for over a decade despite everything changing around them. We have two elite, elite quarterbacks who face each other every year despite the fact that they are not divisional opponents, because they are able to stay in 1st place so long. On top of that, almost every game has had a memorable ending. Purely as a football fan, I can’t wait for this game.

Now onto the actual pick. The Patriots lost last week in Carolina, but result aside, they’ve played very well offensively over the past 2 weeks, with 61 first downs to 3 punts. Their offense really seems to have woken up with Tom Brady playing better, Aaron Dobson breaking out, and Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola finally healthy. They could have easily beaten Carolina if it wasn’t for a -2 turnover margin, which isn’t the norm for this team, and we can assume an explosive offense once again going forward for them.

In spite of that, the public seems to be down on the Patriots after last week’s loss, as the majority of the action is on Denver. In addition to the fact that I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, I also think this is incorrect. Carolina is a top-5 team. There’s no shame in a close loss in there on the road. In fact, result aside, I’m more impressed with the Patriots after the game than I was before.

The Panthers are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents and the Broncos have a very similar differential, moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If New England can almost win in Carolina, why are we getting a whole field goal with them at home? The Patriots are now moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which suggests this line should be around a point, before you even get into the fact that the Patriots are playing better football now than the start of the season.

That’s also before you get into the fact that the Patriots are in a great spot as home underdogs before being road favorites. Teams are 64-39 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Patriots have absolutely no distractions with a trip to Houston on deck, while the Broncos are in between two games against the Chiefs, which are much more important to the Broncos’ seeding than this one. Because the Patriots lost last week, the Broncos will still control their destiny to the #1 seed if they lose this game, but they won’t if they win this game and lose next week. The Broncos won’t sleepwalk through this game or anything. After all, it’s Brady/Manning. However, the Patriots will be less distracted.

The Patriots are also in a spot where they traditionally cover. Simply put, Tom Brady dominates in this specific situation. The fact that they lost last week actually bodes well for their chances of covering this week. Tom Brady is 28-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. He’s also fantastic as an underdog or a small favorite. In his career, Brady is 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 40-16 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of 2.5 or fewer. At home, he’s 7-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and he’s 12-2 ATS as a home underdog or home favorite of 2.5 or fewer. In fact, he hasn’t been an underdog at home since 2005. As an underdog off of a loss, he’s 12-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog off of a loss as an underdog. He dominates when doubted and off of a loss and that’s the exact situation he’s in this week.

And if the opponent is a high level opponent, even better. In his career, Tom Brady is 27-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 71.1% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 28-9-1 ATS, including 17-5 ATS as underdogs. Tom Brady always brings his best for the best opponents and he’ll do the same this week.

The Broncos also might be a little overrated here. We know they’re a dominant team at home, but on the road, they’ve won by 3 in Dallas, lost in Indianapolis, and won by just 8 in San Diego, with the Chargers scoring 4 times (2 touchdowns, 2 field goals) to Denver’s 4 scores (4 touchdowns), even though Denver was coming off of a bye. Their only impressive road win came in New York against the Giants and they were playing awful football at the time. I’m not saying the Broncos are a bad road team, but it’s very, very tough for any team to be dominant on the road and it’s very, very tough for any team to win on the road against a top level opponent (just ask the Patriots last week).

They’ve also shown cracks since that amazing start they got off to. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 5 games, Peyton Manning has completed 136 of 217 (62.7%) for 1688 yards (7.79 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His numbers from his past 5 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is. He’s a 37-year-old quarterback who isn’t 100% with two bad ankles and now he has to go on the road to the cold in New England.

He could also be without two of his weapons as Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are both dealing with injuries. Wes Welker will need to get cleared by doctors because he suffered a concussion last week, while Julius Thomas injured his knee and has yet to practice. I’m not saying they’re definitely going to be out, but it’s worth noting. Peyton Manning won’t suddenly struggle without them and he still has plenty of weapons, but Peyton Manning is having probably the best season of his career this year because of the addition of Welker and the emergence of Thomas. Take them out of the mix and he could struggle a little bit more than usual by this season’s standards. Add everything together and I love the Patriots’ chances of winning a shootout at home and, as long as I’m getting a field goal, this is my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New England +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2013 Week 11 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 11

Straight Up: 10-5

Against the Spread: 8-5-2

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-1

Medium Confidence: 1-1

Low Confidence: 4-0

No Confidence: 2-2-2

Upset Picks: 2-3

2013

Straight Up: 110-52

Against the Spread: 100-58-4

Pick of the Week: 6-5

High Confidence: 16-5

Medium Confidence: 24-14

Low Confidence: 26-12-1

No Confidence: 28-22-3

Upset Picks: 20-15

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2013 Week 12 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.3%

It looked like fullback type Brian Leonard would be the new starter in Tampa Bay with Doug Martin and Mike James hurt, as Leonard had 20 carries the week before against Miami. However, the Buccaneers decided to unleash Bobby Rainey instead and he rushed for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 carries, with another touchdown through the air on 2 catches for 4 yards. It’s very possible this is his best game of the season because he won’t be able to face Atlanta’s putrid defense weekly, but he’s obviously worth owning universally. He’ll be the clear starter going forward.

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.8%

Chuck Pagano says that the Colts are going to go with the hot hand at running back going forward and right now that’s obviously Donald Brown. He carried the ball 14 times against Tennessee, more than twice as many times as Trent Richardson did, and took them for 80 yards, while Trent Richardson is rushing for 2.8 yards per carry since joining the Colts via trade. He could easily be the lead back going forward. He’s worth a bench stash

WR Aaron Dobson (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.9%

Aaron Dobson didn’t have the best game against Carolina, but he’ll face easier matchups going forward and he still has been very good statistically over the past 5 games. Over those past 5 games, he’s caught 23 passes for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s worth owning as a bench stash and could be worth a start in a few games going forward.

TE John Carlson (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.4%

In 2 games since Kyle Rudolph got hurt, John Carlson, the new starting tight end, has caught 12 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown. Rudolph is out for the remainder of the season, leaving Carlson as the starter and Christian Ponder seems to enjoy throwing to him. If you need tight end help, consider picking up Carlson.

RB Chris Ogbonnaya (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.7%

It appears the Browns have grown tired Willis McGahee sucking, as the ancient running back is rushing for 2.6 yards per carry. Chris Ogbonnaya led the Browns in rushing against the Bengals, rushing for 69 yards on 8 carries and could be the lead back going forward. He also is a pass catcher, catching 34 passes for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns on the season, including 6 catches for 30 yards last week. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)

This is one I could go either way on. Both teams are in good spots and distraction free. The Ravens host the Jets next week and will be favored, while the Bears go to St. Louis and will be favored. Non-divisional home favorites are 69-47 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road dogs and non-divisional road dogs are 98-63 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.

These two teams are also as evenly matched as they come. Baltimore has a horrible offense that is moving the chains at a 68% rate, but their defense is holding opponents to 68% as well. Chicago has a horrible defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, but their offense moves the chains at a 77% rate. They are 16th and 15th respectively in rate of moving the chains differential and this line at 3 makes perfect sense. We’re not getting any line value with either side.

Chicago is dealing with crippling injuries. Before the season, the Bears had 6 above average or better starters, Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. Henry Melton is already out for the season. Charles Tillman is now out until the playoffs, if they can make them. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. None of those guys were playing up to their ability before going down anyway. Julius Peppers is showing his age and Major Wright is regressing in a major way.

Their defense could get worse going forward, which would put even more pressure on their offense, which is also dealing with a serious injury as Jay Cutler is out. Josh McCown has played well in Cutler’s absence, arguably as good as Cutler could have, completing 60.0% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. There are no guarantees he can keep that up though, given his career numbers (58.7%, 6.37 YPA, 41 touchdowns, 44 interceptions), despite the strong offensive supporting cast and coaching staff.

Baltimore, however, has been absolutely awful on the road thus far this season, going 1-4, losing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, while getting blown out in Denver. This isn’t a new trend. Since 2010, they are 26-4 at home, but 18-17 on the road. At the end of the day, I’m going to fade the Ravens on the road, but I’m not confident in Chicago at all. This is the biggest toss up of the week for me.

Chicago Bears 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Lions, Steelers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are 3-6, but they are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which is a differential that ranks 17th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11 on the season), an inability to recover fumbles (28.6%), and return touchdowns (-2 in return touchdowns), but those things are all related and all very inconsistent. The Lions are a good team, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, but we’re still getting some line value with Pittsburgh +3.

The Lions are also in a bad spot after last week’s close win in Chicago. Favorites are 28-59 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 as road favorites the week before. They have a one game lead on the division, an easy schedule upcoming, and the two teams within a game of them in the division are missing their starting quarterbacks with injury. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they started to coast a little bit. As long as we’re getting a field goal with the Steelers, they should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

I maintained all along that the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0 for a season. Winless teams are 24-5 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989 so I’m not surprised at all that Jacksonville was able to go into Tennessee and beat a distracted Titans team. That shouldn’t change what anyone thinks about this team. They’re still one of the worst teams of the decade and easily the worst team in the NFL this season.

Their point differential is -176. No one else is worse than -78 (Houston, NY Giants). Football Outsiders has them at -62.3% in terms of DVOA. No one else is worse than -35.9% (Oakland). In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. No one else has a differential worse than -8%. Arizona isn’t a fantastic team or anything, but they’re at least average. They move the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th. In terms of DVOA, they are 12th. 9 points might seem like a lot to be giving with the Cardinals on the road, but it’s pretty reasonable.

Now that the Jaguars have a win, they won’t catch teams off guard as easily and they can get back to what they were doing for the vast majority of the season, which was losing to anyone and everyone by 10 points or more. They’re also in a bad spot after last week’s win. Since 1989, teams are 46-67 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-28 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. I’m not confident in the Cardinals because I hate laying more than a touchdown on the road with anyone (7.5+ road favorites are 5-17 ATS since 2011), but if I had to pick a side, I’d take Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9

Pick against spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Chargers are in an obvious sandwich game spot here in between a loss at home for Denver and a game in Kansas City next week. Teams are 74-95 ATS since 2008 as favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Since 1989, teams are 29-45 ATS as road favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Road favorites are 37-50 ATS off of a home loss as underdogs since 1989. Also since 1989, non-divisional favorites are 24-40 ATS off a loss as divisional underdogs before being divisional underdogs again. It makes sense. Why would San Diego put forth a ton of effort for Miami in between arguably the two biggest games of their season?

However, Miami could also still be very distracted with the whole Incognito/Martin situation. At the same time, enough time might have passed that they are more motivated to silence their critics than distracted, especially after last week’s embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay. It’s really tough to know and that makes this a tough pick. Also, Miami is not as good as their record. Distractions weren’t the only reason Miami lost in Tampa Bay. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Their off-season spending spree has not paid off and being without two starters on their offensive line doesn’t help. The Chargers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. That suggests they should be favored by about 3.5. I’m going to take San Diego on pure talent, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 23

Pick against spread: San Diego -1.5

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

I had the Falcons winning 8 games before the season, but I never could have imagined a team with a quarterback like Matt Ryan could ever win 4 or fewer games. However, they have a very realistic chance of that happening right now, at 2-7. That’s just what happens when you have nothing functional around your quarterback. Matt Ryan is actually doing a very good job this season, as the Falcons are moving the chains at a 75% rate, above average, despite problems on the offensive line and injuries to his weapons. However, there’s nothing he can do about the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a league leading 82% rate. As a result, they are 27th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That’s actually significantly worse than Tampa Bay, who is better than their record. Tampa Bay is 26th, but they are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They’ve been competitive in most of their games and their point differential of -63 is actually better than Atlanta’s point differential of -65. They have some very good players, including Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis, the latter of whom is unfairly being blamed for the Buccaneers’ record, despite being thrown on less frequently than any other cornerback in the NFL. In terms of DVOA, they are actually 20th, while the Falcons are 22nd. The Falcons have no business being favored on the road here.

The Falcons are also in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. They play the Saints next week on Thursday Night Football and that could be a huge distraction for them. They could have a very hard time getting up for the Buccaneers when they host the Saints in 4 days. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Falcons are in a good spot coming off of back-to-back losses of 21+. Teams are 38-20 ATS in that spot since 2002 as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation.

However, I think it’s a different dynamic with the Falcons being favorites. They are the first team to be road favorites off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 1999 and only 5 have been road favorites in that situation since 1989, going 1-4 ATS. It’s obviously not a huge sample size or anything, but it makes sense that the Falcons might not be as undervalued and overlooked here as road favorites as they otherwise would be. The Buccaneers are in a bad spot coming off of a close home win as underdogs. Teams are 34-58 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 1-3 points as home underdogs. It’s not a huge play on the Buccaneers for that reason, but we’re getting value with them and they should win this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)

The Bengals were riding high off of a 49-9 win over the Jets a couple of weeks ago, but after back-to-back road overtime losses, they have been knocked back down to Earth and people have given them the inconsistent label. I don’t think it’s so much inconsistency as home/road disparity. On the road, they lost in Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and Baltimore and almost lost in Detroit and Buffalo. However, they are still a dominant home team that has won all 4 of their home games, including two against New England and Green Bay and one by 40 against the Jets. At home, Andy Dalton completes 64.6% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. On the road, Andy Dalton completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Back at home, they should get back on track this week against an inferior team.

On the season, the Bengals are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 8.5. That matters because big home favorites usually take care of business going into their bye and it’s important to determine whether or not the Bengals deserve to be big home favorites. I think they do. Home favorites of 6+ are 49-17 ATS since 2002. The thing I’m worried about is that they might not be the same team defensively without Geno Atkins and Leon Hall and that the Browns are a legitimately improved team offensively without Brandon Weeden under center.

The Bengals also might be tired off of back-to-back overtime games. Teams off of back-to-back overtime games surprisingly don’t have a poor record against the spread, going 17-19 ATS since 1989, but that’s not a huge sample size. Also, teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime and the Bengals are coming off of back-to-back road losses in overtime. They could just be so tired and unable to concentrate for the Browns this week. Also the Browns are in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. I’m still taking the Bengals to bounce back, but I’m not that confident. Cincinnati is my Survivor Pick this week though.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6

Confidence: Low

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