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Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Raiders, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (4-6)

The Raiders may be 4-6, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their 4 wins have come against teams that are a combined 11-29. They are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. Their defense has been surprisingly competent, but their offense has been extremely limited this year. Matt McGloin had a strong debut last week, completing 18 of 32 for 197 yards and 3 touchdowns, stealing the starting job away from a struggling Terrelle Pryor.

However, Raiders fans anointing him a starting caliber quarterback need to remember that they did the same thing with Terrelle Pryor a few weeks ago. I’ll need a few more weeks to be sold on McGloin, especially since he’s 7 months removed from no one drafting him. McGloin will also be hurt this week by the absence of his #1 receiver Denarius Moore. He’s one of only two Raiders receivers who have at least 250+ receiving yards.

The Titans, meanwhile, are a solid football team. They may be 4-6, but 4 of their losses came against top-10 teams, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, and Indianapolis and they were competitive in 3 of those. Jake Locker is out for the season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a huge downgrade. Locker is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, while Fitzpatrick is one of the best backups. They have a solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty, Derrick Morgan and others and they should be able to frustrate McGloin in his 2nd start without his #1 receiver. I’m not really confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 20 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against spread: Tennessee -1

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)

The Steelers may be 4-6, but they’re better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 13th in the NFL. They are 4-2 since the bye, after their 0-4 start. They started the season with a -11 turnover margin in the first 4 games of the season, recovering 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Since then, their turnover margin has been +3 over the past 6 games and their rate of recovering fumbles has increased to 34.8%.

That was predictable and they seem to have put their issues behind them, beating 4 teams with a combined 19-22 record in the process, so they aren’t exactly beating up on cupcakes. They did get blown out in New England, but there’s not a ton of shame in that and they could have easily won in Oakland as well, if they hadn’t allowed the longest touchdown run by a quarterback ever and miss several makeable field goals.

The Browns aren’t as good. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which ranks 24th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here, if it’s only by one point. Going into last week, they were 4-1 when Brandon Weeden wasn’t their starting quarterback, only losing in Kansas City in a close game. However, Jason Campbell fell apart last week, completing 27 of 56 for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. It’s hard to trust him this week. The Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

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