Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Ordinarily, the Seahawks struggle on the road, in addition to dominating at home. Since 2007, they are 17-37 SU and 22-31 ATS on the road, as opposed to 34-18 SU and 35-16 ATS at home. However, they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road, including wins in Carolina and Houston this season. Those games were close, but they still covered and they’ve been playing very, very good football dating back to the middle of last season.

They’ve won 12 of their last 14 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 221 of 341 (64.8%) for 3011 yards (8.8 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game over last 14 games overall, including 7.4 points per game on the road. They are also 12-2 ATS in those 14 games. They’re a dominant football team with a very strong home field advantage, rather than just an above average football team with a very strong home field advantage that shows its true colors on the road. I thought they were the latter before the season, but I’ve changed my mind, but I don’t feel this line reflects that.

Indianapolis could be a very solid football team, but I’m not 100% sold on them. They had 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in 2012. For the first two games of the season, it looked like the same old Colts, barely beating a bad Oakland team at home and then being unable to pull a win out of their ass at home for the Dolphins week 2. Things have changed in the past two weeks obviously, as they’ve blown out both the 49ers and the Jaguars, but it’s possible that the 49er game was just a fluke and the Jaguar game was just, well, a Jaguar game. They are pretty much the same personnel wise as they were 2 weeks ago and it’s hard to believe they suddenly just became a significantly better team. I guess you could point to the Trent Richardson trade, but he’s rushed for 95 yards on 33 carries in 2 games, so he’s not making much of an impact.

The Seahawks are also 8-6 ATS on the road as favorites, even dating back to 2007 and, in their 2nd straight road game, being away from home won’t be as big of a deal, even at a 1 PM ET start in the Eastern Time Zone. The Seahawks are 7-5 ATS in their 2nd straight road game, even dating back to 2007, and it’s very likely the Seahawks have spent the week practicing somewhere in the Eastern Time Zone, given that they weren’t far away last week in Houston. That’ll negate some of the Time Zone effect. Besides, teams are 52-33 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. I’m not incredibly confident, in case the Colts actually are for real, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Low




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