Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)

The Ravens have been a completely different team this year at home as compared to on the road. At home, they’ve beaten both Cleveland and Houston, but on the road, they were blown out in Denver and lost in Buffalo. This is nothing new. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 point per game.

They’re on the road here again, but they have a better chance of covering and winning here for several reasons. First, they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are more used to being on the road. Even the Ravens, as much as they’ve struggled on the road, are 6-3 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2010. On top of that, teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in that situation as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

The Ravens also essentially get two players added to their team. Eugene Monroe comes in from Jacksonville. He probably doesn’t have the playbook fully down yet, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and an upgrade on an aging Bryant McKinnie. Ray Rice also should be much closer to 100% this week. He only got 5 carries last week in a loss to Buffalo because of his injury situation and the Ravens weren’t able to establish the run at all. He also didn’t catch a pass. They don’t have enough weapons to get away with not involving Rice in the passing game. He should have a bigger impact this week. I don’t like taking the Ravens on the road, but they should be the right side.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low




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