San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
The 49ers won last week in emotional fashion in New Orleans. You’d think that would put them in a bad spot for this week, but it historically hasn’t, as teams are 70-44 ATS off of an overtime win as underdogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 48-28 ATS when that overtime win was on the road. On top of that, the 49ers are in a good spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. Going off of that, road favorites are 49-33 ATS off of a road win since 2008.
The Giants, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as they have a tough game at home next week against the Cowboys. Teams are 14-29 ATS as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. Going off of that, teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and the early line is currently 4. The Giants haven’t been great at home in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era anyway. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 49-37 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.81 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home.
The 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast here, which is usually a bad spot for teams, but they are 5-0 ATS in this spot since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011. That’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. The 49ers also have had a lot of success in the Jim Harbaugh era as favorites of 3 or more, going 25-16 ATS in that spot since 2011, including 11-5 ATS on the road. They should be the right side here as 4 point favorites.
San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 17
Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4