Denver Broncos (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-6)
The Broncos are the best team in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.53% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of 7.54%. However, this line still might be too high at 10. The Rams rank 26th, moving the chains at a 70.72% rate, as opposed to 75.09% for their opponents, a differential of -4.37%. That’s not good, but they’re definitely better than the Raiders and they can give the Broncos way more of a game than the Raiders did last week. Remember, the Broncos have not played well on the road this season, losing in Seattle and New England and needing a late pick six to win by more than a touchdown in New York against the Jets. Last week was the exception, but the Raiders are a special kind of terrible this season.
Even before you take into account the Broncos’ relative road struggles, I still don’t think this line should be higher than 9. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Rams obviously and I’m not confident in them at all, but the public is all over the Broncos (predictably so) at a very high rate. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always make money in the long run and I think it makes sense here, even if I’m not confident.
Denver Broncos 28 St. Louis Rams 20
Pick against the spread: St. Louis +10