New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
The Eagles are favored here by 4.5 on Monday Night Football, pretty reasonable when you consider that the Eagles rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 16th. However, the Giants are in such a great spot here, hosting a weakened Cowboys team in New York next week, while the Eagles have to go to Carolina to face a Panther team that is currently undefeated. The Giants will be favorites and the Eagles will be underdogs, the opposite of what we have here. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.
The Giants also typically travel well, at least they have since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-43 (59-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.04 points per game. They are also 12-5 ATS as divisional road favorites of 3.5+ points over that time period.
The Giants are pretty banged up, which is why this isn’t a higher confidence pick, but they’ve dealt with injuries all season and have been fine (as have the Eagles defensively, without middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso). Left tackle William Beatty, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, and wide receiver Victor Cruz will all miss their 6th straight week to start the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara adds to the injury list, as he’ll be out for a few weeks with a pectoral injury, but top pass rusher defensive end Robert Ayers returns from injury. Star wide receiver Odell Beckham hasn’t practiced all week, but is still expected to play on Monday Night, though he could be slowed after aggravating his nagging hamstring problems. I still like getting the 4.5 points with the Giants a lot.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 23
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4.5