Tennessee Titans (3-9) at New York Jets (7-5)
The Titans are coming off of a win, their 3rd of the season and an impressive offensive performance in a 42-39 victory. Despite having one of the worst records in the league for the 2nd straight year, the Titans are above the worst teams in the league in rate of moving the chains differential, coming in at 25th. They’ve also been significantly better offensively with Marcus Mariota healthy, as he is now. In the 2 games he missed with injury, they moved the chains at a 57.41% rate, as opposed to 73.68% in his 10 starts. However, the Titans are far from healthy right now, as wide receiver Kendall Wright and outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, key players on both sides of the ball, will join starting cornerback Jason McCourty, who is on injured reserve, on the sideline.
The Jets, meanwhile, are essentially injury free and they have been one of the least injured teams in the league all season. They have just one player listed as questionable, no one listed lower than questionable, and no one of note on injured reserve. They were missing talented center Nick Mangold with injury for a stretch, but he returned two weeks ago, and talented cornerback Darrelle Revis, who has missed the past two games with a concussion, returns this week. Mangold’s return has had a noticeable impact on the offense and Revis’ return should have a similar impact on the defense, though they played alright without him. The Jets rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and, fully healthy like they are now, they are a force to be reckoned with and a team that should be favored by more than a touchdown over a banged up Titans squad.
The Titans are also in a tough spot, with a trip to New England on deck, for a game where the Titans will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Underdogs of 6+ are 42-65 ATS before being underdogs of 6+ again, since 2012, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to keep the game close if they have an upcoming distraction like that. Furthermore, all teams are 35-54 ATS before being double digit underdogs, over that same time period, for similar reasons. It’s just too much of a distraction having such a huge game like that on deck. Combining the two, underdogs of 6+ are 18-44 ATS before being double digit underdogs, since 2010. The Jets are in a good spot, coming off of a road overtime win (56-44 ATS since 2002) and are distraction free, with a trip to Dallas on deck. They should be able to take care of business here at home pretty easily and they are my Pick of the Week.
New York Jets 27 Tennessee Titans 13
Pick against the spread: NY Jets -7
Confidence: Pick of the Week