San Francisco 49ers (4-10) at Detroit Lions (5-9)
The Lions were favored by just 6.5 points over the 49ers on the early line last week and now they’re favored by 10. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This line is about right though, as the 49ers are the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin I think. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential at -11.56%. No one else is worse than -7.85%. The Lions aren’t a great team or anything, ranking 21st in that measure, but, given how bad the 49ers are, I think this 10 point line is justified, especially since it seems like talented safety Glover Quin is going to be able to play despite suffering a concussion last week, as he returned to practice on Friday.
The Lions are in a bad spot though, as they have to turn around and go to Chicago, a much tougher game and a much bigger divisional game. The Lions could look past the lowly 49ers with that game on deck. Double digit favorites are 54-72 ATS before being underdogs since 2002 and the early line has the Lions as 1.5 point underdogs next week. I can’t have any confidence in the 49ers, given how bad they are (I haven’t taken them since week 4), but they’re my pick here.
Detroit Lions 26 San Francisco 49ers 17
Pick against the spread: San Francisco +10