New York Jets (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8)
I really wish we were still getting points with the Jets, like we were last week, when they were underdogs of 1.5 in Buffalo on the early line. The line hasn’t moved to the opposite 3 yet, but the Jets are now favored by 2.5, which takes a pretty powerful trend out of play. Divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. The Jets lost to the Bills at home earlier this year in a game that would have been a lot different if the Jets hadn’t lost the turnover margin by 4 (the Jets actually won the rate of moving the chains differential battle).
Fortunately for the Jets, turnover margins are really inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams that have a -4 turnover margin in a divisional matchup, on average, have a -0.1 turnover margin in a same season regular season rematch, since 1989. Those teams are also 51-40 ATS for what it’s worth. The Jets are also healthier now and playing great football since getting both cornerback Darrelle Revis and center Nick Mangold back from injury. While the Bills are missing cornerback Stephon Gilmore, defensive tackle Kyle Williams, middle linebacker Nigel Bradham, wide receiver Percy Harvin, running back LeSean McCoy, safety Aaron Williams, tight end Charles Clay, wide receiver Robert Woods, and right tackle Seantrel Henderson (9 starters) from their week 1 starting lineup, the Jets are arguably the healthiest team in the NFL.
The Jets also rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 19th for the Bills, so, even though the Jets are now favored, we’re still getting some line value with them. It’s just not enough for me to be confident putting money on them. The public is all over them, despite the significant line movement. I usually love fading heavy public leans whenever it makes sense, as the public always loses money in the long run, and fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The Jets’ win at home against the Jets as home underdogs last week have really exposed the Jets as a significant player, so the value isn’t quite there with them anymore. On top of that, teams are 46-72 ATS since 2012 off of a home win as underdogs and the Jets could easily come in overconfident. I’m still taking the Jets, especially with the line under a field goal, but I’m staying away money-wise.
New York Jets 16 Buffalo Bills 10
Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2.5