New York Jets (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)
One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. In this game, the home team Buffalo Bills have gone from field goal favorites to now home underdogs, though they’re only home underdogs of 1.5 points. I wish we were getting at least a field goal the other way, because I like the Bills’ chances of at least keeping it within a field goal, but I still like their chances of winning straight up as well.
I disagree with this line movement. The Jets looked better than the Bills last week, but It’s still very early in the season and I had these two teams about even coming into the season. Of course, the Bills are at less than 100% injury wise, with talented left tackle Cordy Glenn now joining first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland on the sideline and Sammy Watkins playing through foot discomfort after off-season surgery. For that reason, I couldn’t put any money on the Bills without the full field goal, but I think they should be considered the favorites to win this game in their home opener. If you have to bet something in this game, bet the money line at +105 since this game looks like at least a toss up at worst.
Buffalo Bills 19 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5