Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. This line was 3.5 a week ago, but has since moved all the way to 6. It’s unclear why. The Browns struggled mightily in Philadelphia last week, but we already knew they were a bad team. The Ravens had a solid performance last week against the Bills, but they’re not good enough to be favored by this many points on the road against anyone, especially with top pass rusher Elvis Dumervil missing his 2nd straight game with injury. It’s a no confidence play, but Cleveland is the pick here.
Baltimore Ravens 17 Cleveland Browns 12
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6