Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Washington Redskins (1-2)
The Browns are coming off of a road overtime loss. Typically, teams do not do well off of a road overtime loss, but the Browns are lucky because they’re in their second of two road games here. Teams are 131-95 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-65 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games, including 6-1 ATS off of an overtime loss. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 228-231 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.56 points per game, as opposed to 327-449 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.85 points per game.
The Browns are in a bad spot here though, as they have to turn around and play New England in Tom Brady’s return next week, a game in which they are 10.5 point home underdogs on the early line. Teams are 46-71 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again. It’s very tough for an inferior team to pull an upset if they have another tough game the following week, as that tough game is often a distraction. On top of that, teams are 44-91 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+ since 2008.
The Browns probably should have won in Miami last week, if not for 3 missed field goals, but the Dolphins are not a good team. The Browns are still probably the least talented team in the NFL, especially with all of their injuries. Already missing top defensive lineman Desmond Bryant for the season before the season even began, the Browns are currently without their top two quarterbacks Robert Griffin and Josh McCown, top receiver Corey Coleman, center Cameron Erving, defensive end Carl Nassib, outside linebacker Nate Orchard, and cornerback Tramon Williams with injury. As much as I don’t love laying 7.5 points with the Redskins, they should be the right side here.
Washington Redskins 27 Cleveland Browns 17
Pick against the spread: Washington -7.5