Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-3)

The Chargers are 0-3, but actually rank 4th in first down rate differential right now because they have 6 more first downs and just 1 fewer offensive touchdown than their opponents on 9 fewer offensive plays. They lost their first two games by a combined 5 points, missing a field goal to send it to overtime at the end of the Denver game week 1 and then missing two field goals in an eventual 2-point loss to the Dolphins. Last week, they lost the turnover battle by 3, which significantly hurt their chances of making it a much closer game against the Chiefs in an eventual 24-10 loss.

Fortunately, record in close games and turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis and the Chargers have much more talent than their record suggests. Unfortunately, they have two big issues working against them this week. For one, they have no homefield advantage in Los Angeles outside of the benefit of not having to travel and getting to sleep in their own beds. They struggle to sell out their 27,000 person soccer stadium and most of the fans who came for their first 2 home games were road fans.

The second big issue is that they’re facing a tough Philadelphia team. The Chargers are better than their record, but they’re an average team at best. The Eagles are one of the more talented teams in the entire league. It hurts that they’re missing defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, who is one of their best defensive players, but I still have these teams about 3 points apart in my rankings. If I generously give the Chargers a point for homefield advantage, this line should still be about -2 in favor of the Eagles instead of -2 in favor of the Chargers. I’d need the full field goal to be confident betting on the Eagles against the spread, but the money line at +110 is worth a bet because the wrong team is favored.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2

Confidence: Low

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s