Los Angeles Chargers (3-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)
The Chargers are 3-5, but I think they are very underrated and borderline a top-10 team in terms of talent. They rank 7th in first down rate differential at +3.12% and are only 3-5 because they’ve lost 3 games by 3 points or less, including two games in which they missed makeable field goals. That’s pretty impressive considering they basically don’t have a homefield, as the recently relocated Chargers do not draw any home fans in Los Angeles.
With better luck in close games and a real home stadium, this team could easily be 5-3 or 6-2. They are 3-1 ATS on the road, as they are this week in Jacksonville, with their one loss coming by 8 points in New England as 7.5 point underdogs. That’s been the story for years with them, even dating back to their San Diego days. They are 13-7 ATS on the road since 2015 and 12 of their last 26 losses have come by 4 points or less.
The Jaguars are a borderline top-10 team too, as they have arguably the best defense in the league, which allows them to run the ball and hide Blake Bortles. However, I think this line is too high at 4.5, especially with the Chargers getting middle linebacker Denzel Perryman back from injury out of the bye. These two teams are more or less even, so I have this line at 3. The Chargers have a good chance to win outright and, if they lose, it could easily be another close loss. About 30% of games are decided by 4 points or less, even more so when the Chargers are involved, so getting 4.5 points gives us a decent sized cushion. The Chargers are worth a small bet.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Los Angeles Chargers 17
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +4.5