Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 18 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)

It’s hard to make a call on this game because the Raiders have a pair of key players whose status for this game is legitimately questionable, stud tight end Darren Waller and top cornerback Casey Hayward. This game is essentially a play-in game for the playoffs, so both will make every effort to play and, if both play, the Raiders should be able to cover this spread as 3-point home underdogs. The Raiders’ point differential (-68) is much worse than the Chargers’ (+18), despite these two teams having the same record, but the Raiders have been hurt by a -11 turnover margin (3rd worst in the NFL), which is not predictive week-to-week. 

What is also not predictive week-to-week is that the Raiders have underperformed on third and relative to their early down performance. The Raiders rank 15th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency and 9th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but are just 25th in third down conversion percentage and 21st in third down conversion percentage allowed. In terms of schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, which is more predictive, the Raiders rank 11th overall, just behind the 9th ranked Chargers.

If Hayward and Waller do not play, however, the Chargers might actually be the right side, especially since they tend to play well away from home, where they lack a homefield advantage anyway. Since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers are 22-15 ATS on the road, as opposed to 15-22 ATS at home. For now, I am going to assume that one of Waller or Hayward will play in this game and take the Raiders, but this is a no confidence pick and I probably won’t be betting on the Raiders either way, given the Chargers’ road prowess.

Update: Both Waller and Hayward are in so this is now a low confidence pick.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Las Vegas Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 17 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (7-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)

The Chargers lost on the road in Houston in embarrassing fashion to one of the worst teams in the league, with a final score of 41-29 as 12.5-point road favorites. There are plenty of reasons to expect the Chargers to bounce back this week though. For one, their loss last week was largely the result of losing the turnover battle, as they won the yards per play battle (+0.49) and first down rate battle (+2.86%). 

The Chargers will also be healthier than they were last week, with top edge defender Joey Bosa, stud center Corey Linsley, talented starting wide receiver Mike Williams, and feature back Austin Ekeler all back in the lineup. Teams tend to bounce back from big upset losses anyway, covering at a 57.3% rate all-time after a loss as favorites of 10 points or more, as teams tend to be much more focused after getting embarrassed by a bad team.

The Chargers also get another easy game this week, as the Broncos will be the team with the significant injury issues in this game, rather than the Chargers. The Broncos only lost by four to the Raiders last week, but they lost despite winning the turnover battle by three and they lost the first down rate battle (+13.30%) and yards per play battle (+1.15) by significant amounts, especially struggling on offense in the first start of the season for backup quarterback Drew Lock. 

Lock will start again this week, but he’ll be without at least two of his top wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick, as well as starting right tackle Bobby Massie. Meanwhile, their defense is expected to be without talented edge defender Bradley Chubb and stud slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, on a unit already missing a trio of talented players who began the season with the team, AJ Johnson, Josey Jewell, and Von Miller. 

The Broncos could also be without top wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who reportedly could also go on the COVID list with Jeudy and Patrick, giving Drew Lock an even thinner receiving corps. The Chargers aren’t 100% either, as they could be missing a pair of starters in the secondary in Chris Harris and Nasir Adderley, but even if they are out and Sutton plays, I still have the Chargers favored by 10 points. If they play and Sutton doesn’t, my calculated line moves to -13. I want to lock this one in at -7.5 before the line potentially increases and I may increase this play before gametime.

Update: The Broncos will likely have Sutton for this game, but the Chargers are getting Harris and Adderley back, while Broncos interior defender Mike Purcell is out, meaning the Broncos will also be without at least two (DeShawn Williams) of their interior defenders and possibly a third if Dre’Mont Jones, who is questionable, is unable to go. This line hasn’t moved from 7.5, but I am glad to have bet the Chargers at that number, as the disparity in player absences between these two teams is massive.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -7.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Houston Texans (3-11)

The Texans have managed to win three games, but none of their wins have been impressive and they are still arguably the worst team in the league. Two of their wins, including their win last week, came against the Jaguars, who are also arguably the worst team in the league. Their first win over the Jaguars came way back in week one when veteran Tyrod Taylor was starting at quarterback instead of raw rookie Davis Mills and when the Texans’ offensive line was much healthier. The second win came last week in a game in which the Texans lost both the first down rate and yards per play battle by significant amounts, only winning the game because they overperformed on third down (10/18 vs. 3/14), which is not predictive.

The Texans’ other win came in Tennessee against a Titans team that is at least capable, but the Texans also lost the yards per play and first down rate battle by significant amounts in that game, only winning because of a +5 turnover margin, which is also not predictive. On top of that, the Texans 11 losses have come by an average of 18.55 points per game. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on yards per play and first down rate and is more predictive than final scores, the Texans still rank just 32nd, 31st, and 9th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively, while their mixed efficiency not only is dead last in the league, but they are five points behind the second worst team. 

The Chargers are favored by 10.5 points here on the road, but they rank 10th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, about 16 points better than the Texans, and they travel pretty well because they don’t have much homefield advantage (22-14 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles) and the Texans are so bad that my calculated line has the Chargers favored by 13.5 (using a lesser adjustment for homefield advantage), so we’re still getting line value with them. 

A lot has been made about all the Chargers are missing due to COVID, including dominant center Corey Linsley, dominant edge defender Joey Bosa, talented starting wide receiver Mike Williams, and featured running back Austin Ekeler, but the Texans are also missing key players to COVID, with top wide receiver Brandin Cooks and top edge defender Jonathan Greenard both out, among others. 

If anything, the Texans’ losses may be more damaging, as they don’t have the talent on the rest of this roster to make up for the absence of two players who are arguably the two best on the entire roster at their respective positions. I am hoping this line will drop to 10 before gametime as bettors overreact to the Chargers’ COVID absences and ignore the Texans’ absences, but even at 10.5 I would take the Chargers for pick ‘em purposes. This is a low confidence pick for now, but could be updated if the line moves.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Houston Texans 10

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -10.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 15 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)

These two teams met in Kansas City back in week 3, with the Chargers winning by a final score of 30-24. However, the Chiefs won the first down rate battle by 7.92% and only lost the game because they lost the turnover battle by 4, which is not a predictive metric. The Chiefs were also missing their top cornerback Charvarius Ward and their top edge defender Frank Clark, which hurt their defense significantly. That game was a microcosm of the Chiefs’ early season, as turnovers and injuries were a theme for the Chiefs across the first several weeks of the season. 

In addition to Ward and Clark missing time, top interior defender Chris Jones and top safety Tyrann Mathieu also missed time with injury early in the year, while their turnover margin through seven games sat at -10, en route to a 3-4 start. However, their defense has since gotten healthy and added edge defender Melvin Ingram in a key mid-season acquisition, which has led to what was one of the worst defenses in the league in the beginning of the season now becoming one of the better defenses in the league in recent weeks.

That has propelled the Chiefs to a 6-game winning streak, a stretch during which their turnover margin has been +10, evening out their margin on the season. The Chiefs’ offense has actually struggled relative to their typical performance over their winning streak, coinciding with offensive line injuries, but they got right tackle Lucas Niang back last week, meaning they had their preferred starting five healthy on the offensive line for the first time in weeks, and it showed in a 48-9 rout of the Raiders. If their offense bounces back to their typical form with a healthy offensive line and their defense continues to be a complementary unit, the Chiefs are going to be very tough for anyone to beat and could easily be considered the top team in the league and the Super Bowl favorite, despite their slow start.

The Chiefs will be without interior defender Chris Jones this week due to COVID protocols, but the Chargers will be missing left tackle Rashawn Slater for the same reason and the talented rookie is playing so well that his absence almost cancels out the absence of the Chiefs’ dominant interior defender. This game is in Los Angeles, after the last matchup was in Kansas City, but it barely matters, given the Chargers lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they are 14-21 ATS at home since moving in 2017, as opposed to 22-14 ATS on the road. The Chiefs, in particular, have seen very friendly crowds in Los Angeles in their visits, which has helped them win all three of their matchups against the Chargers in Los Angeles, by an average of nine points per game.

The Chargers are a solid team, but, with the absences of Jones and Slater taken into account, the Chiefs are still significantly better than them and should be favored by significantly more than just a field goal on the road in a place where they will be greeted by a friendly crowd and where they have had no problem winning in the past. My calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 6.5 points, having a 7.5-point edge in my roster rankings, while the Chargers get just one point for homefield advantage. The Chiefs are worth at least a small bet at -3 and, depending on the status of questionable Charger defensive backs Derwin James and Asante Samuel, I might increase this play. I also want to make sure neither team will have any further COVID absences before possibly making this a higher confidence pick.

Update: I want to increase this bet. Derwin James is playing, which would have been the bigger absence, but Asante Samuel is out and, the bigger deal, is that the Chiefs have had no further key players test positive for COVID, which will be a concern up until gametime in every game this week. With both teams missing one key player each with COVID, the Chiefs have a significant edge over a team they could have easily beaten earlier this year if not for some fluky turnovers and that was despite the Chargers being the significantly healthier team in that matchup, which is not the case this time around.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Los Angeles Chargers 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: High

New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 14 NFL Pick

New York Giants (4-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)

A lot has been made of the Giants’ injury situation, as they are missing starting quarterback Daniel Jones, at least one of their top wide receivers Kadarius Toney, as well as a trio of key defensive starters, safety Jabrill Peppers, cornerback Adoree Jackson, and middle linebacker Blake Martinez, but the Chargers are missing some key players as well. Top wide receiver Keenan Allen is out with COVID, while fellow wide receiver Mike Williams and top cornerback Chris Harris could join him as close contacts, although both seem likely to end up playing. They’re also without starting cornerback Asante Samuel, starting edge defender Kyler Fackrell, and their two starting offensive linemen on the right side, tackle Bryan Bulaga and guard Oday Aboushi.

Despite that, the Chargers are favored by 10 points in this game. The Chargers are a better team than they were a year ago, but, dating back to the start of last season, the Chargers have just three multi-score wins, with two of them coming last season against the eventual 1-15 Jaguars and the Chiefs’ backups in a meaningless week 17 game. The Giants might be bad enough to still lose by double digits anyway, but my calculated line has the Chargers favored by just 8.5 points, factoring in that the Chargers frequently draw road heavy crowds and don’t have much homefield advantage in Los Angeles as a result, going just 13-21 ATS at home since moving to Los Angeles.

On top of that, the Chargers are in a bad spot, with a much tougher game next week, in Kansas City, against the Chiefs. Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 43.6% rate before facing a team with a winning percentage over 40% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, and, making matters worse for the Chargers, that game in Kansas City is on short rest on Thursday Night Football. Favorites cover at just a 41.7% rate before a Thursday game. It’s very likely the Chargers overlook a bad Giants team starting a backup quarterback, at least enough that this game will be closer than it should be. There isn’t enough here for Glennon and the Giants to be bettable, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +10

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Typically, the rule of thumb with Chargers games is to pick them when they are on the road and pick against them when they are at home. Since moving to Los Angeles, the Chargers have frequently had to play in front of crowds at home that primarily favor the road team, leading to them underperforming the spread at home, but then being underrated when they go on the road. In total, they are 21-14 ATS on the road, as opposed to 13-22 ATS at home.

The Chargers lost last week in Denver, but they were missing a key offensive lineman, Matt Feiler, and he will be back this week. Meanwhile, the Bengals could be down a pair of offensive lineman for the first time this season, with both center Trey Hopkins and right tackle Riley Reiff likely to be out after not practicing this week. The Bengals have the better record at 7-4, as opposed to 6-5 for the Chargers, and they have a much better point differential (+83 vs. -20), but they have also faced a much easier schedule, as the Bengals have faced one of the weakest schedules in the league and the Chargers have faced one of the toughest. 

In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Bengals rank 22nd, 18th, 7th, on offense, defense, and special teams respectively, while the Chargers rank 4th, 19th, and 32nd, while holding the edge in mixed efficiency rank, 14th compared to 18th for the Bengals. Despite being the better team and the healthier team, the Chargers are getting a field goal in this game, even though they normally don’t have much trouble going on the road, as they are used to playing in front of hostile crowds even at home. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Chargers against the spread and on the money line.

Los Angeles Chargers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 26 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +3

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) at Denver Broncos (5-5)

The Broncos started 3-0 and, while all three games were against mediocre at best opponents, they won all three in convincing fashion, winning all three by double digits. However, since then, the Broncos have lost five of their last seven games to fall to 5-5. Part of the problem is their schedule got tougher, but they still have faced a below average schedule overall and, even when adjusted for schedule, their performance has dropped off significantly. The culprit has been injuries, as the Broncos have lost as much talent to injury since the beginning of the season as any team in the league. 

In total, the Broncos are without a trio of offensive linemen, stud left tackle Garret Bolles, starting right tackle Bobby Massie, talented starting right guard Graham Glasgow, talented edge defender duo Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, every down middle linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson, talented starting safety Kareem Jackson, and impressive slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, who all played for this team week one this season. It’s possible Chubb returns this week, but he seems to be no better than 50/50 and, at the same time, Shelby Harris, their top interior defender, seems legitimately questionable as well and could miss his first game of the season, which would be a big absence.

The Broncos did beat the Cowboys in Dallas in a convincing win a few weeks ago, but that was more due to Dak Prescott not being 100%, stud left tackle Tyron Smith being out for the Cowboys, and the Cowboys being flat after giving their best effort to beat the Vikings in Minnesota without Prescott the week prior. That win is likely a big part of the reason why the Broncos remain overrated, but their only other win in their past seven games was a one-score game against Washington in which the Broncos blocked a pair of field goals and, missing all they are missing, I have the Broncos 4 points below average in my roster rankings right now.

Despite that, they are underdogs of less than a field goal at home against the Chargers, who are 2.5 points above average in my roster rankings. The Chargers only have one win by more than one score this year, after their only two wins by more than one score last year came in a meaningless game against the Chiefs backups and a game against the eventual 1-15 Jaguars, but they are still a more talented team than a year ago and their lack of blowout wins this season likely stems from the fact that they have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league.

They only won by one-score last week against an injury depleted Steelers team, who were arguably the easiest opponent they have faced to date, but they won that game despite losing the turnover battle and having a punt blocked, which led to the Steelers cutting into what was a 14-point 4th quarter lead. Overall, the Chargers won the first down rate by 12.24% and the yards per play battle by 3.1 yards per play, both substantial amounts. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Chargers rank 4th, 17th, and 32nd respectively on offense, defense, and special teams respectively on the season, while ranking 12th in mixed efficiency. 

The Chargers also have done that despite not having any real homefield advantage, frequently playing in front of crowds that mostly favor the road team. That has been the case since they moved to Los Angeles in 2017 and, as a result, Chargers are 21-13 ATS on the road and 13-22 ATS at home since moving to Los Angeles. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 24th in mixed efficiency and are even worse now than that suggests because of all of the missing talent. The Chargers shouldn’t have too much trouble handling them in Denver, which makes them an intriguing bet in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover, with only about 8% of games decided by two points or fewer. 

I am leaving this as a low confidence pick for now and not placing a bet on the Chargers because of injury uncertainty, with not only the status of Bradley Chubb and Shelby Harris up in the air, but the Chargers also possibly being without talented left guard Matt Feiler, who is reportedly a gametime decision and would be a big absence if he didn’t. Depending on the status of those three players and where this line ends up, I may update this pick and bet on the Chargers. Either way, they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 20 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

Typically the rule of thumb with the Chargers is to bet them on the road and bet against them at home. The Chargers hardly have any fans in Los Angeles and usually play in front of mostly road crowds, which means they don’t have a typical homefield advantage, but it also means they tend to be underrated away from home. Overall, the Chargers are 21-13 ATS on the road and 13-21 ATS at home since moving to Los Angeles.

However, the Chargers do have one big advantage this week, with this game being at night against an Eastern Time Zone opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers. A Pacific Time Zone team covers at about a 67% rate all-time in a night game against an Eastern Time Zone team, regardless of where the game is played. The Steelers are likely to be feeling much more tired in the second half because they are accustomed to a later time zone, which should allow the Chargers to pull away. It doesn’t help matters for the Steelers that they are coming off of a long overtime game, which resulted in a tie. There is limited history, but teams are just 11-17 ATS all-time after a tie, so the Steelers could be especially tired in this game.

The Chargers only have one win this season by more than six points and, dating back to the start of last season, they have just three wins by more than six points, with one coming against the Chiefs backups in a meaningless week 17 game and another coming against the eventual 1-15 Jaguars. That makes it tough to confidently bet on the Chargers as 6-point favorites, but the Steelers are missing some key personnel and, despite their record, might be among the worst teams in the league right now.

The Steelers have been outscored by 33 points in their three losses, while outscoring their opponents by just 25 points in their five wins and, of course, last week they played to a tie with the winless Lions at home in Pittsburgh. The Steelers did not have quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in that game against the Lions and he will return this week, but the way he has played this season, that barely matters, as he’s not much of an upgrade on Mason Rudolph. It’s very possible the Steelers would have still struggled to pull out a win over the Lions even with Roethlisberger in the lineup.

The Steelers went 12-4 a year ago, but they were not as good as their record, winning a lot of close games against an easy schedule, and they were carried by a dominant defense, with their offense being among the worst in the league. This season, their offense has been about the same, ranking 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but their defense has fallen to 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency. In general, it’s much tougher to maintain high level defensive play year-to-year than high level offensive play, but the Steelers lost significant personnel in the off-season and have continued to lose key players to injury, so they have had more regression than most top defenses and will likely see that continue as their injury list grows.

Already without key defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu, the Steelers will now be without Defensive Player of the Year candidate TJ Watt, talented safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and top cornerback Joe Haden this week. Meanwhile, their offense, which already has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, will be without their best offensive lineman Kevin Dotson. A mediocre team even when not missing all these key personnel, I have the Steelers six points below average in my roster rankings. 

The Chargers didn’t have many blowout wins last season and don’t have many blowout wins this season, but they are still better than they were a year ago and their lack of blowout wins this season probably has more to do with their schedule, which has been among the toughest in the league. They haven’t faced an easy opponent since their week one trip to Washington and it’s arguable that this game against the Steelers at night is an even easier matchup than that.

The Chargers are only two points above average in my roster rankings and shouldn’t get the full homefield advantage adjustment, but we’re still getting good line value at -6 with the Chargers, who are in a good spot and have enough of a talent edge in this game to get a rare multi-score victory. I am not placing a bet on the Chargers right now, because I am hoping this line drops to 5.5 and I want to confirm that Joey Bosa, who still needs to clear COVID protocols, will play, but it’s very possible I will be doing an update and betting this game before gametime.

Update: There has not been confirmation on Bosa’s status, but heavy sharp action on the Steelers has shifted this line down to 5. Bosa will play unless he surprisingly tests positive today, so I want to lock this in before it goes back up as the Chargers are simply a much more talented team than the Steelers, given all that the Steelers are missing.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

Typically the rule of thumb with the Chargers is to bet them on the road and bet against them at home. The Chargers hardly have any fans in Los Angeles and usually play in front of mostly road crowds, which means they don’t have a typical homefield advantage, but it also means they tend to be underrated away from home. Overall, the Chargers are 21-13 ATS on the road and 13-20 ATS at home since moving to Los Angeles.

However, we’re not getting any line value with the Vikings because they are a little overrated. Going into the season, I thought the Vikings were underrated but, now, even though they are better than their 3-5 record, I think the opposite is true. The common narrative with them is they haven’t lost by more than one score all season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story, as they needed pick sixes against the Cardinals and Ravens to keep those games close and they also have only won by more than one score once all season. 

Efficiency metrics don’t show they have excelled in any one aspect, ranking 21st, 21st, and 19th respectively on offense, defense, and special teams and their defense is even worse than that suggests right now, with three of their top players, Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, and Anthony Barr out with injury. A healthier defense was the main reason I liked the Vikings coming into the season, but their offense hasn’t been nearly as good as a year ago and their defense figures to revert to struggling with so many key players absent. We’re not getting any line value with the Chargers either and I definitely don’t want to bet them laying a field goal at home against still a decent opponent, but they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes, even if a push might be the most likely result.

Los Angeles Chargers 27 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)

The Eagles are just 3-5, but they have the best point differential of any 3-win team at +12. That’s largely because they blew out the Falcons and Lions, two of the worst teams in the league, but despite those two easy games, they have still faced one of the toughest schedules in the league. Their defense in particular has faced a tough schedule, as they have faced the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, who rank 1st, 2nd, and 4th in offensive efficiency. Overall, their defense has held up pretty well considering their tough schedule and currently ranks 4th in defensive efficiency when adjusted for schedule. 

The Eagles’ offense got off to a slow start because of some offensive line injuries, but they have also improved on that side of the ball, now ranking 10th in offensive efficiency when adjusted for schedule. The Eagles’ efficiency ratings might be skewed by two blowout wins, but when you compare it to the Chargers, who rank 12th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency, it’s hard to justify the Chargers being favored by a couple points on the road, especially since the Eagles also have a significant special team advantage over the Chargers, who once again have one of the worst special teams in the NFL. The Eagles also hold a point differential edge (+12 vs. -5). 

The Chargers may have a better record, but just one of their wins came by more than one score and dating back to last season, they have just three wins by multiple scores, with one coming against the 1-win Jaguars and one coming against the Chiefs backups in a meaningless week 17 game. This is a slightly improved team over a year ago, but they’re not as good as they looked during their 4-1 start, especially now that they are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks. My roster rankings have the Eagles as the better team overall and, given that they are at home as well, we are getting a great value with them as 2-point underdogs. This is my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week