Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)
Since losing Aaron Rodgers with a broken collarbone in the first quarter against the Vikings, the Packers have lost 3 straight games against the Vikings, Saints, and Lions, by an average of 11.7 points per game. As a result, the public has soured on them in a big way. This line has shifted from 3 in favor of the hometown Bears on the early line last week to 6 this week. About 30% of games are decided by 3-6 points, so that’s a huge shift. I typically disagree with significant week-to-week line movements as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and this situation is no different.
The Bears have a solid running game and defense, but they rank 24th in first down rate differential and 23rd in my roster rankings, so they shouldn’t be favored by 6 over anyone except the worst few teams in the league, which I don’t think the Packers are. In fact, I have these two teams about even. The Packers have issues in the passing game without Rodgers, but they still have the advantage in that area over the Bears because they have much better pass catchers and better pass protection.
The Bears are better in the run game and on defense, but the Packers have an underrated front 7, with 2nd year players Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez having breakout seasons, and the Bears could be without top linebacker Danny Trevathan. I don’t love betting on Brett Hundley, but this line is too high to pass on. The Bears are too offensively challenged to be trusted as favorites of this many points. Outside of their win over Carolina in which they had two defensive touchdowns, the Bears haven’t won by more than 6 points since week 13 of last season against the 49ers, who are one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Packers are worth a small bet.
Chicago Bears 16 Green Bay Packers 13
Pick against the spread: Green Bay +6