Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)

The Titans started the season with one of the toughest schedules in the league, going 5-6 across an 11-game stretch in which they faced 9 teams that are currently .500 or better. The schedule has gotten significant easier in the past few weeks though, with games against the Jets, Jaguars, and Giants, and that continues this week against the Redskins. The Redskins are 7-7, but they’re also on their 4th quarterback of the season in Josh Johnson and have injury concerns on both sides of the ball, with left guard Ty Nsekhe, wide receiver Josh Doctson, tight end Vernon Davis, and defensive end Matt Ioannidis all not practicing on Friday and possibly joining a list of unavailable players that includes cornerback Quinton Dunbar, wide receiver Paul Richardson, tight end Jordan Reed, and right guard Brandon Scherff, along with Alex Smith and Colt McCoy, their top-2 quarterbacks.

The Titans have won their previous 3 games during this easy stretch, including back-to-back games in which they won by at least 17 points and won the first down rate battle by at least 12%. Even in a narrow victory against the Jets a few weeks ago, they dominated most of the game, winning the first down rate battle by 18.59% and winning the game despite a pick six and a blocked punt. On the season, they rank 12th in first down rate differential at -1.72%. They could easily continue that this week and win by double digits here at home against the Redskins, but they’re not in nearly as good of a spot as they’ve been in recently.

While their previous easy games were not followed by potential look ahead games on the schedule, the Titans might not bring their best effort this week with a much bigger game against the Colts on deck. Teams are just 19-32 ATS over the past 30 years as 7.5+ point favorites before being home underdogs and just 7-16 ATS as 10+ point favorites. That being said, I have no interest in taking the Redskins this week. Not only are they on their 4th starting quarterback, starting former street free agent Josh Johnson, who has been with the team for about two weeks, but they also seem to have serious locker room issues and gave no effort two weeks ago against the Giants in a home blowout loss.

The Redskins had better effort in an upset win against the lowly Jaguars last week, but they were embarrassed coming off of a blowout and might not bring the same effort again this week, especially with a more intriguing home game against the Eagles on deck. They are 5.5-point underdogs in that game and teams are just 27-54 ATS since 2016 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as big upcoming home games tend to be a distraction to teams. There’s not quite enough here to bet the Titans confidently at 10, but if this drops down to 9.5 I will reconsider, as the Titans should be able to win by double digits.

Tennessee Titans 24 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -10

Confidence: Low

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