Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (11-3)

Rookie starting quarterback Lamar Jackson will make his 6th career start this week, even with Joe Flacco back healthy. Jackson is 4-1, with his only loss coming in overtime in Kansas City, but he’s faced a ridiculous easy schedule of defenses so far, with the Raiders, Bengals, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers all ranking 24th or worse in first down rate allowed and the Bengals, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers all ranking in the bottom-4 in first down rate allowed. Despite that, the Ravens have actually moved the ball worse in Jackson’s 5 starts, picking up first downs at a 35.54% rate, as opposed to 36.46% in Flacco’s 9 starts. That’s not a significant difference, but it’s fair to say that the Ravens offense probably would have had more success in recent weeks with Flacco under center, even as good as the Ravens’ record has been.

Jackson’s schedule gets a lot tougher this week in Los Angeles, as the Chargers rank 15th in first down rate allowed at 36.48%. The Chargers are weak against the run and strong against the pass, so this could be a good matchup for Jackson, but the Chargers also have a strong offense that likely will force the Ravens to throw the ball more than they’d like in order to keep up. Considering Jackson has completed just 58.9% of his passes against an easy slate of defenses, that doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. The Chargers are by far the most well-rounded team the Ravens have faced since Jackson became the starter and I have them about 4-4.5 point better in my roster rankings right now.

The Ravens are also in a tough spot playing a night game against a west coast team, a situation east coast teams have historically struggled in, due to differing internal time cycles. In fact, in games between west coast and east coast teams at night, the west coast team covers about 65% of the time. That should be partially offset by the Chargers’ lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles. Much like the Eagles/Rams game last week, the crowd should be full of visiting fans, as both Los Angeles teams have had trouble drawing home fans, even as well as both teams are playing. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Ravens are going to pull the upset like the Eagles did, but it’s enough to scare me off of betting the Chargers as 4.5-point favorites, even though we’re getting line value with the team that’s in the better spot.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -4.5

Confidence: Low

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