Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

Chiefs fans breathed a collective sigh of relief when they found out that what looked like a potential season ending knee injury for Patrick Mahomes turned out to be relatively minor, with Mahomes even returning to practice in limited fashion this week. It sounds like Mahomes has a good shot to return next week, about two and a half calendar weeks after the initial injury, and the time off will give Mahomes an opportunity to rest the sprained ankle that was limiting him before the knee injury, but in the meantime the Chiefs will really miss their franchise quarterback in a tough home matchup with the Green Bay Packers.

Mahomes is also far from the Chiefs’ only player that is out with injury. While the Chiefs do get wide receiver Sammy Watkins back from a two-game absence, they are still without starting left tackle Eric Fisher, starting left guard Andrew Wylie, top defensive player Chris Jones, top cornerback Kendall Fuller, and add starting defensive end Frank Clark to the injured list this week. In their current state, I have the Chiefs ranked 31st in my roster rankings, only ahead of the Dolphins, and yet they are just 4-point home underdogs against the Packers.

This line is probably only at 4 because the Chiefs beat the Broncos 30-6 last week even with Mahomes getting hurt in the second quarter, but it seems to forget that the Chiefs lost at home to the Colts and Texans and almost lost to the Lions even with Mahomes before that game in Denver. Even in that game in Denver, the Chiefs barely won the first down rate battle by 2.59%, with the Broncos essentially handing the Chiefs 20 points on four plays: a fumble recovery touchdown, a busted coverage long passing touchdown, an ill-advised fake punt, and a long punt return allowed. I’m not convinced at all from that performance that the Chiefs as they currently are stand any chance against a top level team like Green Bay. I have this line calculated at Green Bay -10, so I love the value we’re getting at -4. This is my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -4

Confidence: Pick of the Week