Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) at Chicago Bears (3-3)
I’ve picked against the Chargers every week this season except their blowout win against the hapless Dolphins because I’ve thought the Chargers, who won 12 games last season, were overrated by a public that didn’t understand the value of the players this team has been missing with injury, including stud safety Derwin James, their top-2 offensive linemen Russell Okung and Mike Pouncey, and talented starting edge defender Melvin Ingram. So far, it’s been a good strategy because I am 7-0 ATS picking Chargers games this season, but I think we’re now getting value with the Chargers.
Now 2-5 a year after going 12-4, the Chargers have been better than their record has suggested, as their five losses have all come by seven points or fewer. They’ve also had bad turnover luck, with a league worst 23.81% fumble recovery rate leading to a -4 turnover margin that is the 5th worst in the NFL. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and in terms of first down rate differential the Chargers actually rank 11th at +2.21%. They’re also getting back some of the aforementioned injured players, as both Melvin Ingram and Russell Okung are expected to play, though the latter is expected to be on a snap count in his season debut.
Despite that, the Chargers are the biggest underdogs they’ve been all season this week and it comes against a Bears team that also hasn’t been nearly as good as they were a year ago when they went 12-4. The public might not have fully caught on because the Bears’ 3-3 record isn’t horrible, but a year removed from finishing 1st in first down rate differential at +6.64%, the Bears rank just 26th at -3.51% this season.
Their defense is still strong, ranking 9th in first down rate allowed, but without free agent losses Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan, departed ex-defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and injured defensive end Akiem Hicks, they are merely good defensively this year, as opposed to last year’s dominant unit. On offense, they rank 28th in first down rate, as Mitch Trubisky has seemingly regressed behind an offensive line that has definitely regressed and none of their skill position players outside of Allen Robinson can get anything going. Add in a tougher schedule after playing one of the easiest in the league last season and it’s not a surprise that the Bears have been underwhelming this season.
Earlier this week I locked in this line at Chargers +4.5 because I thought it would continue to fall, after being +6 on the early line last week and opening at +5 this week. It did fall slightly to +4, but the Chargers had top wide receiver Keenan Allen suffer an injury during the week and he’s expected to be on a snap count if he plays at all. That doesn’t scare me off from taking the Chargers at +4.5 or +4, as I still have the Chargers slightly higher than the Bears in my roster rankings, but I’m no longer considering this as my Pick of the Week. If this game were in Los Angeles, I’d probably pick the Bears because the Chargers have no homefield advantage there (6-12-1 ATS since moving in 2017), but they are 13-6-2 ATS on the road over that time period. Even if the Chargers are unable to pull off the upset in Chicago, this should be another close game for a Chargers team that has been competitive in every game this season.
Chicago Bears 20 Los Angeles Chargers 19
Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +4.5