Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
The Rams are getting all of the attention for their 3-0 start, but the Cardinals have been equally impressive, if not more so, actually ranking slightly higher overall than the Rams in more predictive metrics. Despite that, the Rams are being favored by 4 points at home as if they are a significantly better team. Even if these two teams are about even, the Rams should be favored by no more than a field goal. That might not seem like a big difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and the Rams also aren’t in a great spot either.
I know this is a matchup of undefeated divisional rivals, but the Rams have beaten the Cardinals 8 straight times since Sean McVay arrived and this game in sandwiched between their big win over the Buccaneers last week and a short week against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 41.9% rate before a Thursday game), so this could be a little bit of a trap game for the Rams, especially since they are expected to win relatively easily, despite their opponents also being one of the top teams in the league. I don’t put much stock in the recent matchups between these teams because this is a different Cardinals team, so there is enough here for me to take the Cardinals for a small play. The most likely results of this game are either team winning by 3 or winning by 1 and all four of those results would cover this spread.
Los Angeles Rams 24 Arizona Cardinals 23
Pick against the spread: Arizona +4