Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
The Chargers pulled a big upset win over the Chiefs last week, but they needed to win the turnover battle by 4 to do so, which is not predictive week-to-week. In more predictive metrics, the Chargers had a -7.92% first down rate differential. The Chargers were already overrated going into that game as they have just two wins by multiple scores in their past nine wins and they came against the 1-15 Jaguars and the Chiefs’ backups, but now the Chargers are more overrated.
The Raiders are not as good as their 3-0 record, as the Steelers and Dolphins are below average opponents, while their win over the Ravens came in overtime in a game in which they had a big advantage as a pacific time zone home team in a night game, in their first game in Las Vegas in front of fans. However, they are still about a point better than the Chargers in my roster rankings and the Chargers should only get about a point for homefield advantage anyway, perhaps less against the Raiders, who have a large fanbase in Los Angeles. The Chargers could also be a little flat after last week’s upset win as favorites are 32-47 ATS since 1989 after a divisional win as touchdown underdogs or more. There is a good chance the Raiders are able to win this one outright and if not, I like getting a field goal of protection in case they lose.
Las Vegas Raiders 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +145
Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3