Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

The Steelers have lost at home in back-to-back weeks to the Raiders and Bengals. Injuries have been part of the problem and they will get their top-2 edge rushers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith back this week, but their problems go beyond their injuries, as their offense remains one of the worst in the league, while their defense isn’t quite as good as a year ago and can’t carry this offense like it could a year ago, when they won a lot of close games against an easy schedule. It’s a tough task to ask the Steelers to go to Green Bay and be competitive with the Packers, who have bounced back in a big way since their shocking week one blowout loss against the Saints. 

The Packers aren’t as good as a year ago as Aaron Rodgers isn’t quite playing at a career best level and key players like David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Za’Darius Smith are out with injury, but I still have them favored by 9 points at home over the Steelers, before even taking into account how dominant the Packers have been at home with Aaron Rodgers, going 45-22 ATS at home in games with fans when Rodgers starts and finishes the game. This isn’t a big bet, but as long as this line is under a touchdown, the Packers are worth a play.

Green Bay Packers 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -6.5

Confidence: Medium