New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)

The Saints have easily been the most unpredictable team in the league thus far this season, with their two wins coming by 35 points and 15 points and their one loss coming by 19 points. It’s hard to figure them out, but not as hard as their final scores would suggest, as overall the Saints have averaged out to be about a middling team, with one of the better defenses in the league, but also one of the less efficient offenses, even in the Saints’ victories. 

They’re also growing more short handed by the week, adding stud left tackle Terron Armstead to a group of absences that includes top wide receiver Michael Thomas, talented kicker Will Lutz, top interior defender David Onyemata, talented center Erik McCoy, starting linebacker Kwon Alexander, and starting defensive end Marcus Davenport, and they’ve yet to put together back-to-back good weeks, so this line favoring them by a full touchdown over the Giants seems a little high. 

The Giants haven’t won a game yet, but they have played their last two games close and  they won the yards per play battle in both, so they could easily be 2-1 right now. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Giants, as my calculated line has them as 6-point underdogs, but the Saints could be flat again after last week’s big week, like they were in week 2 against Carolina, especially since they are making their home debut in week 4. 

I mentioned this last week a few times, but teams tend to let their guard down in a home opener in week 3 or later and tend not to cover the spread, doing so only about 36.4% of the time. That could easily be the case for a team that will be exhausted from spending the first month of the season on the road, battling injuries, coming off of a big win, and facing a winless opponent that has come close in back-to-back weeks. This isn’t a big play, but the Giants are worth betting if you can get a full touchdown.

New Orleans Saints 17 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: Medium