Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Washington Commanders (1-3)

These two teams are similar in some ways. Both teams entered the year without top edge defenders, Harold Landry for the Titans and Chase Young for the Commanders. Both teams have gotten off to underwhelming starts to the season, with the Titans and Commanders ranking 25th and 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency respectively. And both teams have also been further handicapped by injuries, with the Commanders losing a pair of starting offensive linemen Chase Rouiller and Samuel Cosmi and starting wide receiver Jahar Dotson and the Titans losing starting wide receiver Treylon Burks, starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, top linebacker Zach Cunningham, starting edge defender Bud Dupree, and starting safety Amani Hooker.

Despite that and the fact that this game is in Washington, the Titans are the ones favored in this game. Even if only by a couple points, we’re getting good line value with the Commanders as underdogs. My calculated line has Washington favored by two points. I would need the full field goal for Washington to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +110 as the Commanders should be favored to win.

Washington Commanders 26 Tennessee Titans 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Washington +2

Confidence: Low