Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)

Despite their 3-6 record, the Jaguars have a positive point differential at +21 and rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average. That’s in large part due to all six of their losses being decided by eight points or fewer. The Jaguars are 9.5-point underdogs this week in Kansas City, which might seem high, given that the Jaguars have yet to be blown out, but the Jaguars rank four points below average in my roster rankings, suggesting they’ve overperformed their talent level and are likely to regress going forward, and the Jaguars also haven’t played a game this tough yet.

Even after an underwhelming performance against the Titans last week, the Chiefs are still among the best teams in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Chiefs rank 3rd, about eight points above average, led by an offense that leads the league in schedule adjusted efficiency by a wide margin, and my roster rankings support that, with the Chiefs about ten points above average. Overall, my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 12, suggesting that we’re getting a little bit of line value with them as 9.5-point favorites. That’s not enough to bet on them though, especially with the Chiefs in a potential look ahead spot, with a matchup against the Chargers on deck after facing a 3-6 Jaguars team this week. I’m still taking the Chiefs, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Low

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s