Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) in Munich
Typically the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, who covers at a 61.9% rate historically, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation like an overseas game. However, in this circumstance, the team favored by 2.5 points, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, actually seems like the lesser of these two teams. The Buccaneers have more name recognition, but the Seahawks have two more wins and it hasn’t been a fluke, as they rank 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about three points above average, which is in line with where they rank in my roster rankings.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are just two points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency (11th in the NFL) and, due to injuries, they are only a point and a half above average in my roster rankings, suggesting the Seahawks are the ones who should be favored by a couple points. There isn’t enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting unless we are getting a full field goal with them and I don’t love going against Tom Brady in this situation (45-12 ATS in his career against teams with a better record than his, 59-31 ATS as underdogs of favorites of fewer than three), but the Seahawks still seem like the right side for pick ‘em purposes and there is some value with the money line at +125, as the Seahawks should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.
Seattle Seahawks 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +125
Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5