New York Jets (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)
The Bills are favored by 10 points in this game against the Jets, who are at least a middling team, ranking 13th in schedule adjusted efficiency. That might seem high at first glance, but the Bills have had a tendency to blow teams out over the past two seasons, with 17 of their last 21 victories coming by 10 points or more, relevant considering where this line is. Only 2 of their last 5 wins have surpassed this margin of victory, but the Bills are healthier this week than they have been recently, which should make a big difference in the Bills’ margins of victory, as it did last week in their 14-point victory in New England.
A lot of attention has been paid to the Bills losing Von Miller for the season and that is a huge loss, but, aside from that, the Bills are in pretty good injury shape compared to most of the season, with talented safety Jordan Poyer (four games missed), starting offensive linemen Mitch Morse (two games) and Dion Dawkins one game), stud linebackers Tremaine Edmunds (three games) and Matt Milano (one game), and talented edge defender Greg Rousseau (three games), top cornerback Tre’Davious White (ten games) all set to play this week, after missing significant time with injury early in the season. My calculated line actually has the Bills as 11.5-point favorites here, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with them, despite the line being so high. This game isn’t bettable, but I like the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, as they should get another multi-score win this week, like they did last week and in most of their wins over the past two seasons.
Buffalo Bills 30 New York Jets 19
Pick against the spread: Buffalo -10