Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Denver Broncos (3-9)
The Broncos have been the most disappointing team in the league this season, going just 3-9 and ranking 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6.5 points below average, meaning they’ve legitimately been as bad as their record suggests, despite entering the year considered to be Super Bowl contenders by some and to at playoff contenders by most. This week, they host the Chiefs in a game that was flexed from primetime because of how disappointing the Broncos have been.
The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites, but this line could arguably be a little higher, against a Chiefs team that is still one of the best teams in the league, tied for the best record in the AFC, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, 7.5 points above average and 14 points above the Broncos. My calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 11.5 and, while there’s not enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, they seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes.
Kansas City Chiefs 28 Denver Broncos 16
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5