Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) at Denver Broncos (0-1)
The Broncos were an overrated team going into the season. They went 14-3 last season, but they needed to go 11-2 in one-score games to achieve that record and a team’s record in one-score games tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. Case in point, the Broncos went 1-6 in one-score games in 2024. The Broncos also had the second easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponent’s winning percentage last season and, between that and how many of their games were close, it is fair to say they were not as good as their record suggested last season and that they figure to lose more close games this season against a tougher schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more consistent on a year-to-year basis, the Broncos ranked 9th last season, still pretty good, but not as good as their record.
Going into 2026, the Broncos added talented wide receiver Jaylen Waddle via trade, but he came at the cost of their first round pick, which would have been nice to have, given that they lost a pair of starters on defense in John Franklin-Myers and Dre Greenlaw and that they have one of the oldest rosters in the league, ranking 6th in snap-adjusted age last season and coming into this season with the 5th oldest roster in terms of average age, including eight starters in their age 30 season or older. The Broncos also didn’t have many injuries last season, despite having an old roster, with the 5th lowest total value lost to injury and the 8th fewest adjusted games lost to injury, but that could easily change in 2026, which would further hurt them. The Broncos don’t have any major injuries yet, but they are without talented edge defender Jonathan Cooper due to suspension, which is a big loss.
The Broncos disappointed in a big way in week 1, losing 31-10 in Kansas City, which would have been their biggest margin of defeat last season, but we are still getting value betting against the Broncos, as they are favored by 3 points at home against an above average Jacksonville team. The Broncos probably won’t be as bad as they were last week all season and Sean Payton coached teams tend to start slow, but that will likely continue this week.
In Payton’s career, he is 11-25-1 ATS and 15-22 straight up in weeks 1 and 2, underperforming the spread by 3.4 points per game, including 5-20 ATS and 7-18 straight up since 2013 and 1-6 ATS and straight up with the Broncos. Sean Payton is 63-39-2 ATS after a loss in his career, but that falls to 2-7 ATS in the first two weeks of the season. I have the Jaguars about two points better than the Broncos in my roster rankings and, between that and Sean Payton’s history of slow starts, my calculated line is Jacksonville -3, so we’re getting great value with the Jaguars at +3 (+30.04% expected value).
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +130
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3
Confidence: High
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