Miami Dolphins (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
The 49ers had an impressive week 1 performance, not only beating a Rams team that was supposed to be the best in the league by 20 points, but doing so in a bad spot, as 3.5-point underdogs in an international game. Underdogs of 3+ were previously 11-25 ATS in international games. A lot is being made of how disappointing the Rams were in that game, but the bigger story for me is how good the 49ers looked. A lot was made coming into the season about how injury prone the 49ers have been over the years and how, with one of the oldest rosters in the league, they would likely remain injury prone this season.
However, what seemed to get ignored was the fact that this team went 12-5 last season despite being one of the most injury prone teams in the league and that, even if they remain injury prone in 2026, chances are that the 49ers won’t have quite as bad of luck as they had last season. Among other key players, the 49ers were without their starting quarterback Brock Purdy and their two best defensive players Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for 8 games, 14 games, and 11 games respectively last season. All three of those players are healthy now and were a huge part of their success in week 1 against the Rams, with Bosa and Warner looking particularly impressive given that this was their first game back after a long absence.
I think the 49ers are still being underrated because more of the attention is on the Rams looking bad rather than the 49ers looking good. The Rams still rank 1st in my roster rankings despite the loss, even excluding Myles Garrett, who went on injured reserve after the game, and Aaron Donald, who has yet to be activated from the retired list, and the 49ers are also highly ranked, ranking 3rd, trailing only the Rams and Bills. Despite that, the 49ers are only 13-point home favorites this week against a Dolphins team that is arguably the worst in the league. Normally a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best teams in the league would result in a line higher than 14. My calculated line is San Francisco -16.5, so we’re getting good enough line value to bet the 49ers at anything less than 14.
It’s also worth noting that the 49ers have had a tendency to blow teams out in recent years, leading the league with 33 wins by 13 points or more since 2020, despite only having the 8th best record in the league over that stretch, with more than half of their 60 wins over that stretch coming by 13 points or more. The 49ers are also somewhat unsurprisingly 6-2 ATS as favorites of 11 or more over that stretch, winning all 8 of those games by an average of 16.4 points per game, compared to an average line of 13.6. Everything points to this being a blowout, so I don’t mind giving this many points to bet the 49ers in this matchup.
San Francisco 49ers 31 Miami Dolphins 13
Pick against the spread: San Francisco -13
Confidence: High
Leave a comment