Green Bay Packers (0-1) at New York Jets (1-0)
The Packers started last season 9-3-1 and were leading the Broncos on the road to potentially go to 10-3-1, but Micah Parsons tore his ACL midway through that game and the Packers went on to lose that game and every other game for the rest of the season. Parsons’ injury wasn’t the only major injury the Packers had down the stretch last season, as tight end Tucker Kraft, their leading receiver at the time of his injury, had his season ended in week 9 by a torn ACL, top interior defender Devonte Wyatt had his season ended in week 13 by a fractured ankle, and top offensive lineman Zach Bako-Bewele had his season ended in week 15 by a partially torn patellar tendon.
Kraft, Wyatt, and Bako-Bewele have all returned for the start of this season, but Bako-Bewele does not look anywhere ner 100% and, more importantly, Parsons remains out. On top of that, the Packers lost left tackle Rasheed Walker, center Elgton Jenkins, Parsons’ counterpart at edge defender Rashan Gary, key reserve edge defender Kingsley Enagbare, useful wide receivers Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs, and starting linebacker Quay Walker this off-season and didn’t adaquately replace any of them, in part due to not having their own first round pick as a result of the Micah Parsons trade.
Making matters worse, the Packers lost feature back Josh Jacobs to suspension and are without starting interior defender Javon Hargrave, their only notable free agent addition, this week due to injury, while edge defender Lukas Van Ness, their top edge defender in Parsons’ absence, and starting left guard Aaron Banks are highly questionable for this matchup. Banks was severely missed in their week 1 loss to the Minnesota Vikings and their backup quarterback Carson Wentz, pushing the Packers’ losing streak to six, while Hargrave and Van Ness are new absences this week.
This team is truly a shell of what they were to start last season and they are still a little overrated, favored by 3.5 points on the road against the Jets. On top of that, this is a bad spot for the Packers, as they have to play again on Thursday Night Football just a few days after this. Favorites cover at just a 42.7% rate before Thursday Night Football all-time, including just a 40.6% rate after a loss.
The Jets are a bad team and I don’t love betting on them, but the Packers should only be favored by this many points on the road against the absolute worst teams in the league and I don’t think the Jets are quite that bad, especially given that the Packers are in a bad situation. I think the Jets are just good enough to be able to take advantage of a depleted Packers team in a bad spot and keep this game within a field goal, if not win outright.
Green Bay Packers 19 New York Jets 17
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5
Confidence: Medium
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