Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
The 49ers have looked like the best team in the league through two weeks, beating a good Rams team by 20 on a neutral field in week 1 and then following that up by blowing out a bad Dolphins team in week 2 by 22 points. The 49ers rank 2nd in first down rate at 40.00%, 3rd in yards per play at 6.73, 1st in first down rate allowed at 24.14%, and 11th in yards per play allowed at 5.08, while leading the league in schedule adjusted efficiency. They also lead my roster rankings and by a wide margin, with a two point advantage over any other team in the league.
None of this terribly surprising, considering they went 12-5 and ranked 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency last season despite being without quarterback Brock Purdy for 8 games and their two best defensive players Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for 14 games and 11 games respectively. This season, all three are healthy and have been huge parts of the 49ers’ success this season. The 49ers are also getting significant contributions from wide receiver Mike Evans, interior defense Osa Odighizuwa, and linebacker Dre Greenlaw, a trio of key off-season additions.
Despite this, the 49ers are only favored by 8.5 at home against a Cardinals team that is one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th in my roster rankings. The Cardinals won week 1 as 10.5-point underdogs against the Chargers, but the Chargers have proven to be an overrated team to start the season and the Cardinals followed that up by getting blown out at home by the Seahawks, who were starting a backup quarterback. I am shocked that the 49ers aren’t favored by at least the 10.5 points the Chargers were favored by week one. This is worth locking in now before the spread gets any higher.
San Francisco 49ers 34 Arizona Cardinals 14
Pick against the spread: San Francisco -8.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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