Los Angeles Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
The Rams have started 1-2 after being pre-season Super Bowl favorites, but I am not that worried about them because the underlying metrics are much better than that, as they rank 10th in first down rate differential (+1.73), 3rd in yards per play differential (+2.49%), and 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+7.44). They also tend to bounce back in a big way after a loss in the Sean McVay era, going 33-22-1 ATS since his first season in 2017, outperforming the spread by 2.1 points per game. On top of that, the Rams are expected to get Puka Nacua back from a two-game absence this week, which should help this offense significantly.
The Rams are 3-point road favorites in Philadelphia, but I have this line calculated at Rams -6.5, including Nacua’s return and McVay’s history of success after a loss. The Eagles are 2-1, but have not been nearly as good as their record, barely beating two of the worst teams in the league and then losing to the Bears and third string quarterback Case Keenum. They rank 26th in first down rate differential (-3.35%), 11th in yards per play differential (+0.13), and 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-6.63) and their underwhelming performance is not limited to the last three games. Despite finishing with a 11-6 record last season, the Eagles ranked just 16th in schedule adjusted efficiency and this year they seem even worse, with the loss of AJ Brown on offense. The Rams should bounce back from last week’s close loss in Denver and win fairly easily this week.
Los Angeles Rams 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -3
Confidence: Medium
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